U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a high-intensity conflict that will test munitions inventories and production lines. In the initial days of the operation against Iran, the U.S. has confirmed the use of weapons like Patriot and THAAD interceptors, Tomahawk cruise missiles, M142 HIMARS rockets, guided bombs, and LUCAS attack drones, which are reverse-engineered from Iran’s own Shahed-136. Additionally, forces have employed unspecified counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) capabilities that could include a mix of kinetic and non-kinetic effectors. It is difficult to project how many munitions will be used in the coming days and weeks due to uncertainty about the duration of the operation, as well as conflicting messages from the Trump administration regarding the true objectives of a war initiated without congressional authorization.
If the war drags on, it could result in dwindling inventories of offensive weapons, particularly expensive assets like Tomahawk cruise missiles that are currently procured in relatively small quantities. For example, the FY25 budget funded 18 Tomahawks, all of which were maritime strike variants. The service requested 57 Tomahawks in FY26, funded entirely through the a budget reconciliation bill that provided additional resources outside of the base budget. The U.S., Israel, and other countries in the Gulf region will also continue to use a range of interceptor missiles at a high rate to defend against incoming Iranian drones and missiles. In the initial days of the war, Iran launched strikes against targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. There is also a concern that Houthi militants could resume attacks against military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea, which could further erode the Pentagon’s interceptor stockpiles.
Concerns about stockpile resilience are not a new phenomenon. Under the Biden administration, donations of American weapons to Ukraine skyrocketed at a time when many stockpiles were already too low to sustain a war against a near-peer adversary. Since then, lessons from the war in Ukraine have only heightened the global demand for munitions, particularly interceptors to defend against incoming missile and drone threats. The Pentagon also expended hundreds of interceptors to defend against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea in the wake of Israel’s war in Gaza, simultaneously highlighting the critical nature of air defense capabilities and the cost of using expensive interceptors to counter low-end threats. The Trump administration has also conducted airstrikes against ISIS in the Middle East and Africa and launched a campaign against suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, all of which have contributed to increased usage rates for munitions.
The need for the Pentagon to rebuild its arsenal resulted in an influx of resources from the White House and Congress to increase munitions production, grow domestic stockpiles, and expand the industrial base to support these efforts. Specifically, last year’s budget reconciliation bill provided approximately $25 billion for munitions procurement and increased production capacity. Prior to the strikes against Iran, the U.S. also secured deals with Lockheed Martin and RTX with the goal of significantly increasing annual production rates for a range of systems, including Patriot, Tomahawk, SM-3, SM-6, and AIM-120 AMRAAM. As part of this effort, the Pentagon’s FY26 request sought multiyear procurement authority for 13 missile types, with lawmakers ultimately signing off on eight of those.
Several efforts are already underway to address long-term inventory concerns. In addition to increasing production rates of legacy munitions, the U.S. military is working on a range of lower-cost offensive and defensive capabilities intended to make it cheaper and easier to rebuild stockpiles. The Air Force has several ongoing development efforts, including:
- Family of Affordable Mass Missiles (FAMM), a low-cost palletized munition
- Lugged Affordable Cruise Missile (LACM), a low-cost missile the service wants to produce in large quantities
- Counter Air Missile Program (CAMP), a program to develop a low-cost, modular weapon capable of high-volume production
The Air Force also recently fielded an F-15E outfitted with modified Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) rockets, providing a more cost-effective C-UAS solution.
The Army is working on projects under the Long-Range Kinetic Interceptor (LRKI) program, which is a low-cost interceptor primarily intended to defend against small and medium UAS. The service recently awarded a contract to AeroVironment for its Freedom Eagle interceptor as part of this effort. Additionally, the Army is working on a variety of man-portable C-UAS capabilities and recently tested new proximity fuze ammunition fired from Apache 30mm cannons that could be used to take out small UAS.
The Navy has also outlined a requirement for an affordable air-launched, stand-off, anti-ship missile under its Multi-Mission Affordable Capacity Effector (MACE) program. Manufacturers have also made recommendations to reduce costs, such as Lockheed Martin’s pitch for a cheaper variant of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) to facilitate larger production runs. There is also a wide range of directed energy programs in the works, primarily focused on air and missile defense.
These initiatives serve several major purposes: to lower the cost of defeating incoming missiles and drones, facilitate large production runs, and provide greater magazine depth capable of defeating the high volume of threats deployed against U.S. forces. The Navy’s operations in the Red Sea also highlighted the unsustainability of using expensive interceptor missiles to shoot down low-cost drones that adversaries can produce in massive quantities. The military needs affordable options to defeat these types of threats, while still maintaining the exquisite capabilities provided by more advanced interceptors. The military also needs to be able to buy these weapons at scale, which is facilitated by their low cost. A reconciliation spending plan recently unveiled by the Pentagon outlined a $16 billion investment in low-cost weapons between FY25 and FY26, highlighting how affordability has become a key factor in munitions procurement.
With swarms of attack drones becoming the new norm, the ability to field interceptors in large numbers while maintaining a sustainable cost-per-kill ratio is paramount. Directed energy can be especially useful in this regard, providing virtually unlimited magazine depth without having to replenish expended interceptors. However, directed energy programs remain a nascent capability, and development is ongoing to improve performance and scale up systems to handle larger threats.
A surge in munitions procurement was already anticipated in the Pentagon’s upcoming FY27 request, and the administration may further increase the amount of money being sought to buy new missiles and ordnance. This funding could materialize in a larger base budget or through a supplemental munitions request, either via a second reconciliation bill or possibly a standalone war supplemental. Regardless of how the request materializes, it’s clear that the administration intends to push munitions procurement to new heights.
Shaun's deep-rooted interest in military equipment continues in his role as a senior defense analyst with a focus on the United States. He played an integral role in the development of Forecast International's U.S. Defense Budget Forecast, an interactive online product that tracks Pentagon acquisition programs throughout the congressional budget process. As editor of International Military Markets – North America, Shaun has cultivated a deep understanding of the vast defense markets in the United States and Canada. He is a regular contributor to Forecast International's Defense & Security Monitor blog and has co-authored white papers on global defense spending and various military programs.
