by Edward Nebinger, Forecast International.
At PennWell’s PowerGen show, Forecast International introduced a new and singularly unique website. The new site, www.fi-powerweb.com, reports on and provides forecasts for all aspects of the world’s power and energy markets, with particular emphasis on gas & steam turbines, which have been a forte of the company for many years. Forecast International pioneered the development of the world’s first gas turbine forecast over 40 years ago and has since expanded its coverage to include power generation at all levels, combined-cycle (gas and steam) installations, mechanical drives for pipeline and other applications, and marine gas turbines, which are largely used for propulsion of naval surface warships. For aviation markets, FI tracks gas turbine power systems in five distinct market segments.
Ed Nebinger, long-time CEO of Forecast International, stated, “In the development of our new PowerWeb site, our objective was to provide a live and very flexible link to the world’s power and energy industry, not just for the purpose of marketing our services but to establish a central forum for reporting and interpreting thousands of interesting developments taking place daily in this fast-growing industry. All information can be freely accessed, and coverage includes areas of the industry beyond the markets covered by FI. Specifically, PowerWeb tracks and reports on exploration and production of energy sources, renewable energy, and energy-conversion devices of any and all types and their applications. Our site is also designed to be forward-looking, and in this respect we not only report world news and developments, but further interpret these in terms of their impact upon forecast market trends.”
For many years, the analysts of Forecast International have been tracking and forecasting events in the world power and energy industry, and today they are seeing that industry on the cusp of a fantastic spate of new growth. The development of advanced new techniques for the exploration, drilling and production of oil and gas has shifted the dynamic so that the world is no longer dependent upon the Middle East as its primary source of oil. For gas turbines in particular, the future is very bright as cleaner-burning and more fuel-efficient GTs are increasingly accepted as viable alternatives for baseload generation, replacing hundreds of coal-fired plants that are being phased out in the face of ever-more-stringent emissions laws. In addition, several nuclear near-disasters have convinced some national leaders that nuclear operations are overly risky, and their nations have embarked upon long-term phaseouts of nukes. FI analysts expect more to follow over time.
In mechanical drive markets, the expansion of new pipelines for the transport of natural gas and oil is creating demand for thousands of diesels and gas turbines for moving product, and also for auxiliary generation capability at the pumping stations. The U.S., which has jumped into the number one spot for natural gas production, already has over 2.5 million miles of pipelines, with more being constructed. These are relatively clean-burning operations, with the engines drawing fuel directly from the pipelines.
All told, on the industrial and marine side of the gas turbine spectrum, FI sees these and related activities creating demand for over 33,000 gas & steam turbines of various sizes during the 2016-2029 timeframe, with a computed value of the engines alone in excess of $460 billion in current dollars!
On the aviation side, the world market for gas turbines is in the midst of a tremendous re-equipment cycle, the dimensions of which are so far-reaching as to seem almost unbelievable! During the period 2016-2029, this market is forecast to comprise the production of well over 220,000 gas turbine engines with a combined value in excess of $1.2 trillion in current dollars. This world market is being driven by re-equipment cycles in three civil market segments and one military segment, as follows: 1) large commercial jet transports, 2) regional transports (both jet and turboprop), 3) business jets, and 4) military fighter aircraft. PowerWeb cuts through the complexity of these segments and provides in some detail an analytical review of their market drivers.
FI invites viewers to explore – and bookmark – its new site, and to provide the company with feedback and suggestions for improving its operation and content.