The U.S. is facing yet another potential government shutdown at the end of the week. The government is already operating under its third continuing resolution of the year, which keeps programs running at last year’s levels. The current CR expires for four of the government’s 12 appropriations bills on March 1, with the remainder, including defense, expiring on March 8. President Joe Biden invited congressional leaders to the White House Tuesday to discuss the budget situation in hopes of averting a shutdown. The House and Senate will both be in session for only three days before the March 1 deadline, leaving lawmakers scrambling to chart a course for the remainder of the 2024 fiscal year.
Congressional leaders were hoping to have appropriations legislation drafted last weekend, but those bills failed to materialize. The delays raise questions about whether another stopgap spending bill will be required to avoid a lapse in government funding. The threat of a full-year CR also increases the longer the budget battle lasts. Some far-right Republicans have even welcomed the potential of a full-year CR. Members of the conservative Freedom Caucus said they are ready to adopt a full-year CR if their policy demands aren’t met. Those lawmakers have called for broader federal spending cuts, among other policy provisions, that would not make it through the Democrat-controlled Senate.
A full-year CR would subject the entire federal government to a one-percent reduction below the existing CR levels, as mandated in last year’s debt ceiling agreement. The one percent cut goes into effect in April, but a long-term CR would lock it into place for the remainder of the fiscal year.
| Base Budget ($ millions) | FY23 Enacted | FY23 Enacted Less 1% | FY24 Request | Funding Loss Under Full-Year CR |
| Army | 184,892 | 183,043 | 185,337 | -2,294 |
| Navy | 242,984 | 240,554 | 255,753 | -15,199 |
| Air Force | 246,818 | 244,350 | 259,240 | -14,890 |
| Defense-Wide | 141,288 | 139,875 | 141,670 | -1,795 |
| Total | 815,982 | 807,822 | 842,000 | -34,178 |
Source: Analysis of FY24 budget documents
The Pentagon received $816 billion in FY23, compared to the FY24 request of $842 billion. If you include the one percent cut, then spending would drop to around $808 billion under a full-year CR. The result would be a loss of over $34 billion compared to the requested amount. The actual damage would be even greater because that figure doesn’t account for billions of dollars in misaligned funding or the time and money lost over the course of the year due to stalled contracts, missed acquisition milestones, or other program delays.
Pentagon leaders have been vocal about the negative impact of a year-long CR. For example, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall recently said $5 billion worth of funding for the service’s “operational imperatives” are at risk, including the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). The entire FY25 budget could also be disrupted if Congress fails to pass an FY24 defense appropriations bill. Kendall said the FY25 budget is being drafted assuming an FY24 budget will be passed. If Congress fails to adopt a final budget, then the entire FY25 request would effectively have to be reworked.
Additional data insights from the ongoing budget process can be gathered using Forecast International ‘s FY24 U.S. Defense Budget Spotlight, which will be updated with pending FY24 appropriations funding totals from Congress.
As editor of International Military Markets, North America, Shaun has cultivated a deep understanding of the vast defense markets in the United States and Canada. Shaun's perspective on defense procurement and budget issues has been cited in a variety of defense periodicals, including Defense News and National Defense Magazine. Further, Shaun played an integral role in the development of Forecast International's U.S. Defense Budget Forecast product, which offers an unprecedented level of insight into the Pentagon's acquisition budget. In addition to providing original analytical content for the U.S. Defense Budget Forecast, Shaun oversees an internal defense budget forecasting process involving Forecast International's team of skilled systems analysts following release of the DoD's annual budget request. Shaun is also in charge of managing Forecast International's Weapons Inventory database.
