Sanctions Set to Hit Russian Commercial Aerospace Sector

The reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has broadened into the civil aerospace sector:

March 2 (Reuters) – Planemakers Boeing and Airbus have halted supply of parts and support to Russian airlines as the effects of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ripple across the global aviation industry.


The United States said late on Tuesday that it would follow the European Union and Canada in banning Russian flights from its airspace in a move that is likely to trigger Russian retaliation. 


Boeing said it had “suspended major operations” in Russia, where it also has research and engineering centres.


Airbus, meanwhile, said it is halting supply of parts and services to Russian airlines but is analysing whether its Moscow engineering centre could continue providing services to local customers. — Reuters

The conflict has already altered my forecasts for the Antonov An-148 and Irkut Superjet regional jet programs.  Those updated forecasts are already visible to our Platinum clients.

The downstream effect of the new sanctions and airspace closures on the wider civil aerospace sector isn’t clear yet.  The impact of air freight disruptions on the supply chains of manufacturers is one worry, particularly at Airbus. And spikes in the price of oil could increase the cost of airline travel and hurt the post-pandemic recovery the industry has enjoyed recently.

At this point, I don’t think the conflict will widely affect production rates in the civil sector.  The Russian market accounts for a relatively small proportion of airliner demand each year, and demand for long-range business jets is robust enough to adapt to the loss of business from Russian customers.  However, war and conflict can easily blow up an otherwise solid forecast.  It’s something I’m keeping an eye on at the moment.

Forecast International’s Civil Aircraft Forecast covers the rivalry between Airbus and Boeing in the large airliner sector; the emergence of new players in the regional aircraft segment looking to compete with Bombardier, Embraer, and ATR; and the shifting dynamics within the business jet market as aircraft such as the Bombardier Global 7000, Cessna Hemisphere, and Gulfstream G600 enter service. Also detailed in this service are the various market factors propelling the general aviation/utility segment as Textron Aviation, Cirrus, Diamond, Piper, and a host of others battle for sales and market share.  An annual subscription includes 75 individual reports, most with a 10-year unit production forecast. Click here to learn more.

About Douglas Royce

A lifelong aviation enthusiast, Douglas Royce is currently co-editor of four of Forecast International's Market Intelligence Services: Civil Aircraft Forecast, Military Aircraft Forecast, Rotorcraft Forecast, and Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast. As such, he plays a key role in many important projects that involve market sizing and forecasting for various segments of the world aerospace industry, as well as demand for related systems.

View all posts by Douglas Royce →