This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (September 20)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Political Developments

The ongoing 2½-year war between Ukraine and Russia has resulted in an estimated one million casualties, a staggering toll for two nations already facing dwindling populations.

This week, Vladimir Putin has ordered the military to boost its troop count by 180,000. The increase will bring the total number of Russian military personnel to nearly 2.4 million, with 1.5 million being active troops. After the new personnel are brought on the roster, Russia will have the second largest military in the world by troop count, behind China.

Following pressure from numerous European governments, the International Monetary Fund canceled a planned Article IV consultation with Russia. The fund conducts those reviews annually, sending a team to the member country for dialogue over the member’s economic situation. In a letter to the IMF, the governments of Poland, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Iceland, and Norway all warned that going forward with the trip would “diminish donors’ efforts and actions in supporting Ukraine through IMF initiatives.”

Moscow’s frustration with India has grown as Indian companies continue to sell ammunition to European customers who are in turn transferring the shells to Ukraine. According to a Reuters report, Russia has raised the issue several times, including in a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in July.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The Biden administration remains hesitant to allow Ukraine to launch long-range missiles deeper into Russia. U.S. officials are seeking more details on how Kyiv would use the weapons and how they align with the broader war strategy, ahead of President Biden’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy next week.

U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine have shrunk in size recently because the Pentagon is concerned about its dwindling stockpiles. The Pentagon still has $6 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) to donate weapons to Ukraine, but the smaller U.S. inventory is becoming a limiting factor in the flow of donations. The U.S. is working to ramp up production of weapons systems, including artillery, but the process takes time. Most of the PDA funding expires at the end of the month, so Congress would have to extend the time the administration is allowed to utilize that funding.

The European Union has begun directing the proceeds of frozen Russian financial assets to the Ukrainian defense industry, E.U. Ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, said this week. Denmark used some of the funds to help acquire 18 2S22 Bohdana 155mm self-propelled howitzers from the Ukrainian industry, which were delivered this past week.

Germany has completed the delivery of a new aid package to Ukraine, transferring 22 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, 61,000 155mm shells, 5 BV206 armored vehicles, and a pair of TRML-4D air-surveillance radars. Berlin is now planning on its next tranche of aid, which is expected to be worth about EUR397 million ($442.9 million).

Ukrainian air-defense troops will soon receive another SAMP/T air-defense system, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on September 20.

Under a new military aid package worth EUR40 million, the Latvian government will donate nine CVR (T) armored vehicles, as well as drones and kits for individual soldiers. Latvia also expects to deliver Patria-made armored vehicles to Ukraine next year.

Battlefield Updates

Russian forces have launched counterattacks in western Kursk, recapturing several villages and jeopardizing Kyiv’s control over recently seized territory. The governor of Kursk on Monday ordered the evacuation of several border villages and towns amid the Russian operations.

Simultaneously, Russian troops have continued their advance on other sections of the frontline in eastern Donetsk province, thwarting Kyiv’s plan to divert Russian units back to Russia by attacking Kursk.

Ukraine continued its campaign of targeting Russian ammunition storage sites, hitting a massive stockpile in Russia’s Tver region this week. Ukrainian media reported that the raid on the Toropets munition base included over 100 drones, making it one of Ukraine’s largest aerial operations of the war.  Satellite imagery published after the attack showed significant damage to the facility.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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