A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Political Developments
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled across Europe to promote a “victory plan” aimed at establishing conditions for a just resolution to the war with Russia. His discussions included meetings in London with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, followed by a meeting in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Russia’s recent missile attacks on Ukrainian grain ships in the Black Sea threaten global food security. These attacks, including the sinking of the Optima and Paresa, are seen as deliberate attempts by Russia to disrupt vital grain exports.
A Financial Times investigation published this week revealed how Russia’s Lukoil was able to evade international sanctions, allegedly managing to commission several dozen tankers to move the company’s oil. The FT report estimated that the tankers have moved 120 million barrels of oil to date, likely generating over $7 billion in exports.
The Associated Press, meanwhile, published an investigation on Thursday on Russia’s recruitment of foreign workers to its defense industry. The report noted that, given labor shortages in the Russian industry, Moscow has worked to recruit women from numerous African, Asian, and Latin American countries, often on false pretexts.
Military Assistance to Ukraine
Ukraine’s future support from Western allies is uncertain heading into 2025, particularly with the possibility of Donald Trump winning a second term as U.S. President. Additionally, reliance on new funding sources, like the proposed use of frozen Russian assets or NATO contributions instead of traditional European aid, could significantly weaken Ukraine’s position. With pressure mounting on the Ukrainian budget, the government this week approved a tax hike that should generate billions of dollars in new revenue next year.
The E.U. agreed on Wednesday to provide EUR35 billion in loans to Ukraine, backed by the proceeds of those frozen Russian financial assets. Hungary, however, has worked to block the assistance, refusing to agree to a key change in the E.U. sanctions that would enable the loan to move forward. Hungarian Finance Minister Mihály Varga said the matter should be settled after the U.S. election next month.
“I’d like you to know Starlink units in Ukraine are not funded by Mr. Musk. They have been, are and will be funded exclusively by Poland. We do it, nobody else does it. And it’s a factor in Ukraine being able to continue fighting.” – Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski
In a statement, the British government noted that it has already awarded contracts to Thales and Sheffield Forgemasters “in order to warm up industry in preparation for further orders” for Ukraine. London extended Kyiv GBP3.5 billion in export finance to help it acquire defense equipment in July.
Under a new contract, KNDS will supply a dozen Caesar 155mm self-propelled howitzers to the Ukrainian Army. Moreover, France is gearing up to deliver Mirage 2000 fighter jets to the Ukrainian Air Force, with the first aircraft due to arrive next year.
Germany has delivered two IRIS-T air-defense systems to Ukraine, officials told media this week.
Battlefield Updates
The air war continued this week. Ukraine’s military conducted a missile strike on a major oil terminal in occupied Crimea. The Feodosia terminal, the largest of its kind on the peninsula, was the target of the overnight attack. Elsewhere, Ukraine carried out a strike on a Russian facility in Krasnodar Krai believed to be used for manufacturing Shahed drones.
Russia has launched another attack on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. The operation, which took place on October 7, included drones and hypersonic missiles. Moscow fired perhaps five Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and at least 15 attack drones. Ukrainian air defenses engaged these aerial threats.
In a significant development, Russia has lost an S-70 Okhotnik-B (Hunter-B) unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) during a flight over Ukraine. The unmanned air vehicle (UAV) crashed on October 5, 2024. According to preliminary reports, the Okhotnik was hit by friendly fire. The drone has been developed as part of Russia’s own loyal wingman program and is geared towards working with the Su-57.
Russian troops advanced into the city of Torestsk this week. On Friday, Ukrainian officials told media that fighting continues, but Russia is in control of about half of the city.
The UK has sanctioned Russian soldiers accused of using chemical weapons, such as tear gas and toxic choking agent, in Ukraine. These sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans for individuals and entities involved in the use of these weapons.
North Korea soldiers have reportedly deployed to the battlefield in support of Russia. A Ukrainian source told The Guardian that the DPRK personnel are supporting Russian operators of the KN-23 ballistic missile system. Some Korean soldiers deployed close to the front have been killed in combat, according to the source.
London, meanwhile, is considering sending its own operators to Ukraine, but would keep these personnel in ‘secluded’ areas focusing on training new recruits to the Ukrainian Army.
For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com
