Japan’s Defense Ministry released its latest Defense White Paper back on July 15, noting from the outset that the country finds itself in the most severe and complex security environment since the Second World War. The immediate triumvirate of threats – China’s advancing military and activities in the East and South China Seas, North Korea’s focus on enhancing its ballistic missile capability and arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, and Russia’s military activities in the Kuril Islands and joint exercises with China – laid out by Defense Minister Nakatani Gen in his press conference reinforces ongoing work undertaken to systematically and dramatically strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities.
Japan has undertaken a wholesale reorientation of its national security approach and military upgrade process since December 2022, when the government of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida launched a Defense Buildup Program (DBP) outlining roughly JPY43 trillion ($290 billion) in military spending from 2023 through 2027. The aim of the current government – now headed by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who succeeded Kishida in October 2024 – is to raise topline defense spending levels up to 2 percent of GDP from the formerly longstanding (and informal) capped threshold of 1 percent of GDP that had remained in place since 1976.
Alongside the DBP, the accompanying National Defense Strategy has emphasized the need for Japan to field affordable equipment in quantity and quality, while recognizing the gradual decline in available manpower to operate such hardware. Therefore, a key procurement focus for the Ministry of Defense is on unmanned assets in all domains that can be operated in greater quantity and at cheaper cost in money and manpower.
Another primary emphasis is on acquiring and bringing into operation “counterstrike” capabilities as a deterrent mechanism. The ability to hit back at an enemy from a great distance following a first-strike attack is considered crucial by Tokyo.
A major step forward to meet this requirement occurred on January 18, 2024, when Japan’s MoD inked a contract worth about JPY254 billion ($1.79 billion) with the U.S. for up to 400 U.S.-made long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Tomahawk missile has a strike range of around 1,600km (1,000 miles), therefore providing counterstrike capability against Japan’s two strongest threats: China and North Korea.
Funding earmarked in Japan’s current fiscal year 2025 (FY25) budget covers acquisitions of both the Tomahawk missile and the indigenous, upgraded Type-12 surface-launched missile.
From a national security perspective, Japan’s latest White Paper shines a light on China’s “gray zone” activities, which seek to alter regional/territorial status quos through both military and non-military activities and establish de facto control over areas that are not internationally recognized as China’s domain.
Highlighting this area of China’s activities is noteworthy as the white paper designates Beijing as Japan’s “unprecedented and greatest strategic challenge.” Whether challenging Tokyo over its claim to the Senkaku Islands, sailing two aircraft carriers through areas close to Japan for naval training purposes, intensifying its military activities around neighboring Taiwan, or furthering its cooperation with Russia, the steps taken by China have increasingly unnerved officials in Japan.
In response, Tokyo has built out installations on its outlying southwestern islands, redeployed the Japan Self-Defense Ground Forces fleet of V-22 Ospreys to a new garrison in Kyushu, and built-out an amphibious task force unit charged with retaking and securing Japan’s distant islands in the event of conflict.
Japan sees itself surrounded by baleful actors and is steadily preparing itself to assert and defend its territorial integrity and national security. Crucial to achieving such security will be how much the government can galvanize public opinion around the threats and dangers to the country’s environment, and how deeply its security ties with the U.S. and other like-minded nations are embedded.
With an aging and shrinking population, a public still uneasy with building up the Japan Self-Defense Forces, and debt concerns mixed with a falling national currency and trade fallouts with the Trump administration, the government has a formidable task ahead.
Thank you for reading and while you are here please check out this recent DSM post by Anna Miskelley on the use of loitering munitions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Dan Darling is Forecast International’s director of military and defense markets. In this role, Dan oversees a team of analysts tasked with covering everything from budgeting to weapons systems to defense electronics and military aerospace. Additionally, for over 17 years Dan has, at various times, authored the International Military Markets reports for Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.
Dan's work has been cited in Defense News, Real Clear Defense, Asian Military Review, Al Jazeera, and Financial Express, among others, and he has also contributed commentary to The Diplomat, The National Interest and World Politics Review. He has been quoted in Arabian Business, the Financial Times, Flight International, The New York Times, Bloomberg and National Defense Magazine.
In addition, Dan has made guest appearances on the online radio show Midrats and on The Media Line, as well as The Red Line Podcast, plus media appearances on France 24 and World Is One News (WION).
