This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (August 9)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

a tank overlooks a sunflower field
A Ukrainian tank stands guard

Political Developments

Mali and Niger have severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Mali was the first to act after separatist Tuareg rebels reportedly killed at least 84 Russian Wagner fighters and 47 Malian troops in northern Mali in an attack last month. The Malian government claimed Kyiv was complicit in the attack following vague statements from the spokesperson for Ukraine’s spy agency. Niger subsequently broke ties with Ukraine as well, showing solidarity with its neighbor. Mali and Niger are both led by military juntas, following recent military coups that upended their foreign policies, reorienting the two countries towards Moscow. Niger also recently evicted U.S. forces from its territory.

Senegal, meanwhile, summoned the Ukrainian Ambassador to the country after he posted a video related to the attack on his social media page.

The E.U. has approved the distribution of EUR4.2 billion to Ukraine for use in the country’s reconstruction. The funding is the first tranche of a EUR50 billion package that the bloc plans to provide to Kyiv through 2027.

A recent poll conducted in Ukraine found that 57 percent of Ukrainians would support peace negotiations with Russia. Ceding territory to Russia, however, remains deeply unpopular, with 77 percent of Ukrainians stating that delineating borders along the current lines of control would be unacceptable.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy displayed the first F-16 fighter jets to arrive in the country. The president said the aircraft, which have also been seen in the skies, will boost Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. Kyiv may opt to keep some of the aircraft at foreign bases to protect them from Russian strikes, but Moscow has also said he may consider attacking the aircraft even if they are based in a NATO country.

Rheinmetall will deliver the first batch of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine before the end of 2024, according to Ukrainian media. The company eventually plans to produce the IFVs in Ukraine. The company separately said this week that it had received a contract from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense to provide Forward Surgical Team stations, to be delivered through 2026.

On Wednesday, Bulgaria’s Cabinet approved the country’s participation in the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) initiative, which was announced last month at the NATO summit in Washington. NSATU aims to help develop the Ukrainian Armed Forces through the training of Ukrainian troops and provision of military equipment.

Battlefield Updates

A Ukrainian counteroffensive has struck into Russian territory, marking a stunning reversal of fortune for Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian forces, numbering around 1,000, have breached the border into Russia’s Kursk region, launching an attack that has caught the Kremlin off guard. Ukrainian-backed forces have previously launched incursions into neighboring Belgorod province, but not of this size. The situation in Kursk remains fluid, but Ukraine is said to have taken around 600 square kilometers of Russian territory as of August 9.

President Zelenskyy referenced the operation in his Thursday evening statement, saying, “Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done. Ukrainians know how to achieve their goals. And we did not choose to achieve our goals in the war.” Moscow declared a state of emergency in Kursk following the incursion, promising one-time payments of RUB10,000 (~$115) to residents forced to evacuate the area.

As part of that Kursk operation, Ukraine published footage showing a FPV drone carry out a strike on a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter while in flight. On Friday, footage emerged of a Mi-8 transport helicopter being struck, as well.

Ukraine’s military offensive into Russia comes amid intensive Russian efforts to advance in eastern Ukraine. A Financial Times report stated, “Russia’s advances have more than reversed the hard-fought gains made by Ukraine’s army last year.”

Ukraine claims it sunk a Russian Kilo class diesel-electric attack submarine in a missile strike. The sub, Rostov-on-Don, was anchored in Sevastopol in the Black Sea. Ukraine also says the attack “significantly damaged” four Russian S-400 missile defense system launchers that were defending Crimea. Ukraine has used a mix of missiles and maritime drones to attack Russian warships, reportedly sinking or severely damaging at least one-third of the 28 ships in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

The military forces of Russia in the occupied Crimea Peninsula have been hit by a Ukrainian missile attack.  The military force in and around Sevastopol, a major port city, was by an ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System).  The attack took place on August 2. Ukrainian airstrikes once again targeted Russia’s Morozovsk airfield, reportedly destroying an Su-34 fighter jet, and another set of strikes overnight Thursday targeted Lipetsk airbase.

Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure.  An Iskander ballistic missile hit the city of Kharkiv on August 5.  The morning attack damaged residential and some administrative buildings. Russia has launched another attack on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.  The aerial attack may have included four Iskander-M or KN-23 ballistic missiles, in addition to two Kh-59 cruise missiles and 15 attack drones.  This attack took place during the night of August 5-6.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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