This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (October 18)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

a soldier sits atop a mud-covered tankSource: Canadian Armed Forces
Ukrainian soldiers train on Leopard 2 tanks in southwestern Poland, March 06, 2023.

Political Developments

On October 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy detailed his victory plan for the war in an address to the Verkhovna Rada. He emphasized the importance of NATO membership for his country, while once again reiterating the military’s need for more weapons from the West as well as fewer restrictions on their usage. In comments to media this week, Zelenskyy raised the topic of nuclear weapons, implying Kyiv could seek to develop a nuclear weapons capability in the event it cannot join NATO.

“Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons and that will be our protection or we should have some sort of alliance. Apart from NATO, today we do not know any effective alliances,” – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Ukrainian military recruiters have raided social venues in Kyiv like restaurants and bars to check military registration documents of men that may have attempted to avoid conscription.

President Zelenskyy claimed North Korea is sending troops to fight alongside Russian soldiers. “This is no longer just about transferring weapons. It is actually about transferring people from North Korea to the occupying military forces,” he said. Seoul, meanwhile, is sounding a similar tune, stating that North Korean special operators traveled to Russia earlier in October, for deployment to the conflict in Ukraine.

Up to four North Korean brigades — totaling some 12,000 personnel — may have been deployed, according to South Korean estimates. The troops could see frontline combat, though some may also be deployed to help Russia operate and maintain the ballistic missile systems Pyongyang has sent to Moscow.

Ukraine has asked Brazilian authorities to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he shows up to the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro next month. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for Putin in March 2023.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

France will fall short of its goal to provide Ukraine with 3 billion euro in military aid this year, a goal established in a bilateral security agreement signed in February. Paris said it is on track to provide military aid totaling more than 2 billion euro this year.

The U.S. announced a $425 million military aid package to Ukraine comprising of equipment donated from U.S. inventories. Among the items included in this U.S. aid package are: additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); RIM-7 missiles and support for air defense; FIM-92 Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles (SAMs); BGM-71 TOW (Tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided) missiles; and FGM-148 Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor weapon systems.

The U.S. Army is using video conferencing tools to help Ukrainian soldiers repair damaged equipment close to the front lines, including tanks, howitzers, and other gear.

Australia will deliver 49 M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks to the Ukrainian Army, the Australian government confirmed this week, as the Australian Army prepares to introduce new M1A2s into service. Washington, which previously delivered 31 Abrams to Ukraine, has approved the transfer, the AP reported.

Spain has delivered its domestically-produced VAMTAC armored vehicle to Ukraine, Minister of Defense Margarita Robles has confirmed. Greece and Ukraine inked a protocol on the training of Ukrainian pilots for the operation of F-16 fighter jets.

Battlefield Updates

The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday that it had conducted missile strikes on a Ukrainian armored vehicle plant in Mykolaiv, aiming to destroy production and repair lines. At least one was killed and over 11 more wounded in the attack, according to Ukrainian officials. To advance its air campaign, Russia’s military received 4,000 loitering munition drones this week, state media reported.

Satellite imagery shows Moscow has moved a captured Leopard 2 tank deeper into Russia to be disassembled and studied. The tank us currently located at the Uralvagonzavod tank factory.

Following reports of Ukrainian troops crossing the border in Russia’s Belgorod region this week, the region’s governor denied that any incursions had taken place, but noted that “the situation there has been difficult since Feb. 22, 2022.” Ukraine has backed anti-Russia fighters in cross-border raids into Belgorod since the start of the war, and the Ukrainian Army’s August offensive into nearby Kursk demonstrated Kyiv’s willingness to go on the offensive inside Russia.

A commander in Russia’s military intelligence GRU was shot and killed while on leave in a village in Moscow region this week, Russian media reported. Russian authorities said they were treating the killing as linked to his participation in the war in Ukraine.

Russia has performed another ballistic missile attack on targets inside Ukraine.  Multiple ballistic missiles attacked Odesa, a major Ukrainian port on the Black Sea.  The attack took place on the night of October 11

Dozens of North Korean soldiers are in Russia assisting its war effort against Ukraine.  These North Korean experts are assisting the Russian military in the use of the KN-23 theater ballistic missile system.

Russia has launched another drone attack on Ukraine.  Ukrainian air defense forces said its intercepted three Russian attack drones, reportedly Iranian-made Shahed systems.  One of the attack drones was hit by a FIM-92 Stinger man-portable surface-to-air missile (SAM).

 

 

 

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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