This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (October 10)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

a soldier operates a small quadcopter drone carrying an explosiveSource: Ukraine Ministry of Defense
A Ukrainian soldier operates a first-person view drone carrying an explosive

Political Developments

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov declared that the progress made following the August summit between Presidents Putin and Trump has “largely been undermined,” signaling Moscow’s resignation to the collapse of peace efforts for the war in Ukraine. Ryabkov blamed European countries and warned that the US considering sending long-range Tomahawk missiles would have “severe” consequences, further escalating the conflict and worsening US-Russian relations.

However, in a move that contradicted the earlier statements, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov insisted that Russia and the United States’ efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine are still “alive” and that work continues based on agreements from the August summit between Presidents Putin and Trump.

The conflict in Ukraine has entered an AI arms race, with both Russia and Ukraine deploying AI-assisted drones and software for autonomous targeting and intelligence gathering, fundamentally changing battlefield dynamics by making electronic jamming less effective. This technological escalation is pushing the war toward systems that can find and destroy targets without human input, raising urgent global concern over the ethics and regulation of fully autonomous weapons.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on October 8th that Ukraine would nominate U.S. President Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he successfully brokers a ceasefire and helps end Russia’s full-scale invasion.  This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her “tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”

Austria told the E.U. on October 3 that it would not support sanctions on the Russian economy unless compensation was provided for Raiffeisen Bank, which in January was ordered by a Russian court to pay EUR2 billion in damages.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

Czech politician Andrej Babis, in line to return to the prime minister’s office after last weekend’s elections, held a phone call with President Zelensky. Along the campaign trail, Babis criticized a Czech-led initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine, suggesting Prague could halt involvement in the program. Czech President Petr Pavel, meanwhile, urged the incoming government to continue the initiative in a statement following the election.

Slovakia will send demining vehicles and other non-lethal assistance to Ukraine, Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal said this week. The delivery will be the first military aid package to Ukraine under Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who returned to the office after elections in 2023.

With financial help from the Netherlands, Milrem Robotics will deliver over 150 THeMIS unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to Ukraine, the company announced on October 6. The donation will significantly increase Ukraine’s fleet of the UGV; Kyiv has received 15 since 2022.

Rheinmetall announced on October 10 that it will supply Skyranger 35 air-defense systems based on Leopard 1 tank bodies to Ukraine under a “three-digit million euro” contract financed by an unnamed E.U. country, which utilized interest income from frozen Russian assets.

Germany plans to send over 1,000 Mercedes Benz Zetros military trucks to help the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ logistics capabilities, German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported this week.

Ukrainian state arms conglomerate Ukroboronprom inked deals this week with companies in Spain and Romania, covering joint work on air-defense and unmanned technology.

Battlefield Updates

Following the recruitment of up to 180,000 criminals to fight in Ukraine—many of whom were offered pardons—Russia now faces a major domestic crisis as these dangerous, war-damaged convicts return home and have already been linked to a rise in violent crimes against civilians, which President Putin is reportedly trying to carefully manage.

Russia has performed another missile attack on Ukraine.  Moscow fired around 35 missiles, including the Iskander system.  The attack took place on the night of October 2-3.  The primary targets of the missiles were infrastructure facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava regions.

The Russian Air Force took delivery of another batch of Su-34 combat aircraft this week.

The Ukrainian military continues to target Russia’s energy infrastructure, performing a strike on an oil terminal in Crimea on Monday.

Ukraine is using its FP-5 Flamingo missiles to strike targets inside Russian territory.  Kyiv is manufacturing two to three Flamingo missiles per day and plans to increase production to seven a day by the end of October. Ukraine also recently showed off a modified version of the R-360 Neptune cruise missile, featuring an extended range over the original model. The Ukrainian military has increasingly leaned on the missile system for strikes into Russia.

Ukraine’s defense industry is capable of producing 40 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers every month, President Zelensky stated this week. Kyiv developed the Bohdana in the years leading up to the conflict with Russia, and approved the system for serial production in 2023.

+ posts

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

image sources

About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

View all posts by Forecast International →