The Dutch government has opted for a future submarine solution from French naval prime Naval Group per an announcement by State Secretary for Defense Christophe van der Maat on March 15. The selection follows a careful bidding process in which multiple European shipbuilding primes competed for a contract to build four submarines to replace the Royal Netherlands Navy’s (RNLN) current Walrus-class submarines on a one-for-one basis.
When initiating the Replacement Netherlands Submarine Capability project the Dutch government noted that it intended to maintain a submarine component as a crucial niche strategic capability; the project was also considered crucial to local industry, with the government calling for the new vessels to be “as Dutch as possible”, while arming its new submarines with U.S.-built Tomahawk long-range missiles.
The selection of Naval Group to meet the requirement followed a competitive bidding process that initially included Spain’s Navantia, Sweden’s Saab Kockums, and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) of Germany. By December 13, 2019, the Dutch MoD had announced that Navantia had been eliminated from the competition.
The three remaining bidders lined up their offers, with Saab teaming with local Dutch shipbuilder Damen Shipyards for its variant of the A26 submarine, Naval Group partnering with Dutch systems integrator Royal IHC on a design based on its conventional Barracuda variant referred to as “Blacksword”, and TKMS linking up to Dutch technology institutes TNO, Marin, and NLR for the bid of the “Expeditionary” variant of its Type 212CD design developed for joint German-Norwegian naval requirements (and ordered by both countries navies).
A refined research phase (based on the best boat for the price, risk management, and capability), type downselect, and contract negotiations with a supplier were to be undertaken by early 2022 in hopes that a €2.5-€3.5 billion contract would be consummated by the end of that year. Under this timeframe, the lead submarine would enter service in 2028, with the new class of submarines replacing the Walrus class completely by 2031.
But by October 2021 the Defense Ministry revealed that its evaluation phase had fallen behind schedule due to “less information and depth” emerging from the bidders’ responses, and by April 1, 2022, Secretary for Defense van der Maat informed parliament that the entire Walrus class submarine program would have its management overhauled in order to accelerate the process. He also noted that because of delays in the evaluation phase, the first new submarine would likely not enter service before 2034. The new schedule would see delivery of the first two submarines through 2037.
In the meantime, the plan is to reduce the Walrus class fleet – all of which entered RNLN service between 1992 and 1994 – from four to two submarines prior to the 2034-2037 introduction of the first two successor submarines. The first two retired Walrus class boats will be used to source spare parts for the two retained in service, which will still need to undergo service life extension workups.
According to van der Maat, the bid by Naval Group ensures a significant role for Dutch industry, not only in construction of the future “Orka-class” submarines but in the maintenance of them following delivery.
The new submarines will feature cruise missile launching capability (utilizing the Tomahawks and thereby ensuring greater striking power than the current Walrus-class boats), as well as improved sensors and communications systems with which to collect, analyze and share intelligence.
The Dutch Ministry of Defense and Naval Group have agreed upon a delivery schedule whereby the first two submarines will be handed over ten years after the signing of a contract.
However, an assessment and approval by the Tweede Kamer (Dutch House of Representatives) must precede any contract signing, hence the Dutch MoD’s press release emphasizing the “provisional awarding” of the bid to Naval Group.
Dan Darling is Forecast International’s director of military and defense markets. In this role, Dan oversees a team of analysts tasked with covering everything from budgeting to weapons systems to defense electronics and military aerospace. Additionally, for over 17 years Dan has, at various times, authored the International Military Markets reports for Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.
Dan's work has been cited in Defense News, Real Clear Defense, Asian Military Review, Al Jazeera, and Financial Express, among others, and he has also contributed commentary to The Diplomat, The National Interest and World Politics Review. He has been quoted in Arabian Business, the Financial Times, Flight International, The New York Times, Bloomberg and National Defense Magazine.
In addition, Dan has made guest appearances on the online radio show Midrats and on The Media Line, as well as The Red Line Podcast, plus media appearances on France 24 and World Is One News (WION).
