This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (March 15)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

ATACMS fired from an M270 MLRS launcher at White Sands Missile Range. Photo Source: U.S. Army.

Political Developments

EU powers France, Germany and Poland met in Berlin to bridge divides over Ukraine. French President pushes for stronger response, contrasting German Chancellor’s caution. Polish PM attends, adding weight to need for a unified stance.

French President Emmanuel Macron has continued to push for all options, including troop deployments, to be on the table as the West considers measures to help Ukraine moving forward, saying in an interview, “The security of Europe and the security of the French people is at stake here.”

“If we decide today to be weak, if, in the face of someone who has no limits, who has crossed all the limits we have given him, if we naively tell him: ‘I will not go farther than this or that.’ In that moment we don’t decide peace, we decide defeat.” – French President Macron

Russia holds election for Putin’s 6th term as Ukraine strikes border regions, calling the vote a sham. Russian President Vladimir Putin pushed through constitutional changes several years ago that enabled him to circumvent the nominal ban on presidents serving more than two consecutive terms.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The U.S. Department of Defense doesn’t have the funding to replace roughly $10 billion worth of weapons donated to Ukraine. That funding would have to come from a supplemental spending bill that remains stalled in Congress. That legislation would also include additional security assistance for Kyiv.

Despite the lack of funding to replace donated weapons, the U.S. still announced a new $300 million military aid package for Ukraine, which is the first new package since December. The Pentagon is using contract savings from previous supplemental budgets to support the equipment transfer. Weapons in this announcement include Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) ballistic missiles, which can be fired from HIMARS launchers; 105mm and 155mm artillery rounds; AT-4 anti-armor systems; and small arms ammunition.

Meanwhile, POLITICO reported that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to pass a Ukraine assistance bill, which will come with Democratic votes. He told the media outlet in an interview that the bill will be voted on as a stand-alone piece of legislation and would likely need to use the House’s suspension calendar to avoid roadblocks from other House Republicans.

Germany and Ukraine are continuing to discuss a possible long-range TAURUS missile deal. Kyiv has long wanted Germany to provide these weapons. Germany is concerned the missile might be used to attack target inside Russian territory. One option is for Germany to transfer the TAURUS missiles to the United Kingdom. The U.K. would then deliver additional Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is already using British-donated Storm Shadow missiles in combat.

Battlefield Updates

This week, Ukraine-based Russian paramilitary groups launched incursions into the Belgorod and Kursk regions of Russia, skirmishing with Russian security forces.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, said of the attacks, “Kursk and Belgorod regions are now an area of active combat actions. This is what we confirm. And as stated by the volunteers and rebels, we are talking about Russian citizens who, having no other options, are defending their civil right with arms against the Putin regime.”

Russia may have downed a Ukrainian fighter aircraft with a long-range air-to-air missile. A Russian Su-35S fighter reportedly used an R-37M Axehead missile against a Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum. The aerial engagement took place on March 8 over Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

British intelligence has released photographs showing Iranian-made unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) at a Russian military base on the Crimea Peninsula. The photographs are of the Mohajer-6 UAV, which can perform aerial reconnaissance and surveillance missions. These UAVs may be assisting Russian forces in gathering intelligence on the growing number of Ukrainian attacks on Russian naval assets in the Black Sea region. The Mohajer-6 UAVs are also capable of carrying air-to-surface weapons.

Ukraine’s parliament is expected to vote on a draft law later this month that could green-light the mobilization of up to 500,000 people towards the front, the Financial Times reported. With the war now in its third year, Ukraine is starting to run short on personnel, but the draft has proved unpopular, presenting political challenges for Kyiv.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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