This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (April 19)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

armed soldiers gather in a village

Ukrainian soldiers – Ukraine Ministry of Defense

Political Developments

Urkainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said the international community should be willing to provide similar protections for his country as were provided for Israel against Iran’s recent attack. Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israel, most of which were shot down by a combination of efforts from Israel, the U.S., Britan, and France. Ukraine has faced a weapons shortage as Russia continues to launch aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to urge Moscow to end its “insane campaign” in Ukraine. So far, Beijing has given no indication it will put pressure on Russia to end the war. China maintains Western countries have prolonged the war through arms donations to Ukraine — but senior U.S. officials told Reuters recently that Beijing has provided drone and missile technology as well as other support to aid Moscow in its war.

Polish authorities arrested a man suspected of involvement in a plot to assassinate Zelensky, prosecutors said on Thursday. The man, identified only as Pawel K., allegedly sought to pass information to Russia about the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, which Zelensky frequently passes through while making foreign visits. The airport is also a key conduit for the delivery of military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has proposed a multi-part plan to provide foreign aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, with funding for each country contained in separate bills. A fourth bill would also seize Russian assets. The Ukraine aid bill would provide $60.8 billion, including more than $23 billion to replace equipment donated from U.S. stocks and $13.8 billion for additional weapons. The Senate had proposed a single $95 billion foreign assistance package that Johnson has refused to bring to a vote in the House due to resistance from far-right Republicans.

Following Berlin’s announcement that it would supply another Patriot system to Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged the Allies “to step up our delivery of air defense systems to Ukraine.”

The Netherlands’ new spring budget pledged 4 billion euros ($4.25 billion) in military aid to Ukraine between 2024-2026. The Dutch government also said it would bolster investment in its own ground-based air defense capabilities. The Netherlands has been unwilling to donate an of its Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine because they don’t have any spares to send.

The Polish government has a large number of Russian-made air defense systems in its inventory. Warsaw is considering the transfer of these weapons to Ukraine. Kyiv is asking its Western allies for more support, including additional surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to counter the Russian aerial threat. Poland said it will continue to support Ukraine. Warsaw is helping to co-financing the Czech initiative to purchase ammunition for Ukrainian military.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said this week that contracts for the supply of 180,000 artillery shells to Ukraine have already been signed. Prague is working to obtain another 300,000 shells, he said.

Canada will provide $1.16 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the next five years, according to government spending plans. A statement in the Canadian budget read, “This multi-year commitment will provide predictability to Ukraine as well as to Canada’s defense industry.”

Battlefield Updates

Reports from the BBC estimate more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed since Moscow launched its invasion into Ukraine. That figure doesn’t include militia deaths in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk. In February, Zelensky said 31,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed in the war, but the actual figure is believed to be higher, according to estimates based on U.S. intelligence.

Ukraine’s military leadership believes Russia is seeking to capture the town of Chasiv Yar before May 9, which Russia celebrates as Victory Day over Nazi Germany in World War II. Chasiv Yar is located west of Bakhmut, site of a bloody Russian campaign last year.

Frontline Ukrainian units are having difficulties performing medical evacuations over a major shortage of armored personnel carriers, with some units operating only a single M113 or BMP.

Ukrainian media outlets reported on Tuesday that seven Ukrainian loitering munition drones had been used in an attack on a 55Zh6U Nebo-U long-range surveillance radar, which is reportedly capable of detecting targets as far away as 700 kilometers. A source told Kyiv Independent that the radar “is no longer operational.”

The northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv was struck by three Russian missiles, killing at least 14 people in an apartment building. Another 61 people were wounded in the attack.

A Russian Air Force Tu-22M3 bomber crashed on Friday. While Russia claimed the loss came from a technical fault with the aircraft, Ukraine said its anti-air missile units were responsible for downing the bomber.

Kyiv-based 1+1 Media said that its satellite TV programs had been disrupted by a cyberattack on Wednesday. The company stated, “Another attempt took place to jam satellite broadcasting of Ukraine on the Astra 4A 11766 H transponder, where 39 TV channels broadcast.”

President Zelensky said on his Facebook page that Ukraine will put 10 new 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers into service this month, with more to follow in May. Ukraine has been increasing production of the howitzer; the president had noted earlier in the year that Ukraine had the capacity to build eight monthly.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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