This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (October 4)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

a fighter jet flies through the skySource: Ukrainian Air Force
Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 fighter

Political Developments

NATO’s supreme allied commander, U.S. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, has authorized an effort to increase surveillance along Romania’s border with Ukraine, which will involve additional flights by AWACS aircraft. The Alliance’s new Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, emphasized support for Ukraine after taking the office this week. “The more we help Ukraine at the moment, the sooner this will end. Putin has to realize that we will not give in, that we want Ukraine to prevail,” he said.

The Russian government plans to allocate a record 32.5% of its budget to defense next year, surpassing the previous high of 28.3%. This significant increase is intended to support Russia’s ongoing efforts in the war with Ukraine. The budget will grow to RUB13.5 trillion ($143.6 billion) — over six percent of GDP.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The United States has announced a new $5.5 billion military aid package for Ukraine.  This aid will include defense articles and services from Pentagon stockpiles provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority.

Despite opposition from Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is supporting the delivery of long-range strike missiles to Ukraine.  Scholz worries that providing these weapons to Kyiv could further escalate the war with Russia.

The European Union has opened a new defense innovation office in Ukraine’s capital, aiming to deepen industrial ties between Ukrainian and European companies. The initiative could enable Ukrainian defense companies to receive financing from the E.U. for contracts to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with military equipment. Meanwhile, to reform its procurement practices, Ukraine this week transferred defense import and export agency Spetstechnoexport to the control of the Ministry of Defense. The state agency was previously housed under the Main Directorate of Intelligence. 

KNDS has announced the establishment of a subsidiary in Ukraine, which will handle maintenance and overhaul services for equipment that has been provided to Ukraine. The plant will also produce 155mm artillery shells for the Ukrainian Army.

The private company Ukrainian Armor inked a deal with Czechoslovak Group covering the production of hundreds of thousands of 155mm shells in both the Czech Republic and Ukraine.

Battlefield Updates

Russian forces captured the town of Vuhledar, located southwest of Donetsk, this week. The town had held out since the start of the war, but recently has come under intensive Russian attack as Moscow seeks to complete its conquest of Donetsk Oblast. Ahead of the town’s loss, Ukraine transferred Col. Ivan Vinnik, the commander of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade defending the town since August 2022, to another front.

With the fall of Vuhledar, Russia controls most of Donetsk, with the exception of the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Russia also claimed the capture of Krutiy Yar, a village near Pokrovsk, this week.

A Russian-operated Nebo-M radar site has been hit in a Ukrainian missile strike.  Kyiv used a U.S.-built ATACMS in this attack.  The destruction of this radar will reduce Moscow’s ability to detect and track incoming missile attacks.

Russia has performed another drone attack on Ukraine.  Ukrainian Air Defense Forces said it shot down 24 Shahed-type attack drones during the night of September 27. A Russian-operated Shahed-136 drone was found to have a Starlink terminal installed on it, Ukrainian media reported. Elsewhere, a Russian ballistic missile has struck a police station in Kryvyi Righ.  The attack occurred in the morning of September 27.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week that Ukraine’s industry can produce as many as 4 million drones (of all types) annually. The Ukrainian industry has also ramped up production of howitzers, now having the capacity to make 20 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzers per month. 

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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