A Forecast International blog about the arms trade, geopolitics, defense and security, and military spending.
Amidst a national atmosphere of pervasive public disillusionment and rising political atomization, peasant son and former labor activist Pedro Castillo arose from near anonymity in 2021 to surprise domestic and …
Gridlock to Golpe: Can Peru Break the Cycle? Read More
A mere week after the Brazilian Army selected the Iveco-Oto Melara Centauro II fire support vehicle as its preferred solution to fulfill its long-gestating 8×8 armored cavalry vehicle requirement, …
Brazilian Court Suspends Centauro Procurement Read More
The dramatic deterioration of Haiti’s internal security environment over the past two years is of particularly acute concern for the current Dominican government. With the Haitian government having been cast …
Border Tensions and Surging Growth Drive Dominican Defense Expenditures Read More
With existing law enforcement structures largely unable to cope with the social and economic largesse of organized criminal gangs and the pervasive violence left in the wake of intra-gang conflicts, …
Can El Salvador Sustain Its Rising Defense Expenditures? Read More
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of far-reaching Western sanctions on the Russian aviation industry, global commercial aviation lessors have been plunged into a …
Russia Moves to Seize Leased Foreign Aircraft Read More
In the wake of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, Western governments and private sector corporations have levied unprecedented sanctions on the country that have foreclosed numerous avenues through …
Sanctions Foretell MRO Crisis for Russian Commercial Aviation Read More
In a dramatic escalation of the emerging showdown between El Salvador’s new populist presidential administration and the opposition-dominated legislature, President Nayib Bukele deployed armed police and security personnel into a …
Assembly Standoff Leads to Crisis in El Salvador Read More
After a week of sustained protest actions and violence in the wake of a disputed election cycle, Bolivian President Evo Morales announced his resignation from the presidency under pressure from …
The Era of Evo Comes to a Tumultuous End Read More
Guatemala’s military is tasked primarily with protecting the nation’s borders and fighting transnational criminal groups and drug traffickers. In recent years, the military has increased its focus on border …
Facing Continuing Threats, Guatemala Planning to Increase Defense Spending Read More
by Thomas Dolzall, Defense Analyst, Forecast International. Over the past two decades, the international market for wheeled armored vehicles has witnessed tremendous expansion in demand, as well as a coinciding …
Cayman ARV Procurement Reflects Belarus’s Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy, Part II Read More