by Ed Nebinger, Forecast International.
Forecast International has just released its blockbuster report titled, “The U.S. Aerospace/Defense Industry in World Context, Current Status & Forecast 2016-2029.” Over 450 pages in length, the report provides an in-depth examination of the world’s Aerospace/Defense industry and the factors that will impact it over the next 15 years.
Starting from a base of detailed industry statistics, the report covers the leading A&D manufacturers, key programs in all sectors, political and economic considerations, labor factors, budgeting specifics, and much more. In addition, the report forecasts the world industry by leading manufacturers and governmental agencies. It culminates with specific forecasts derived from Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System™ 2.0 of all sectors of the industry for the period 2016-2029. Each segment is addressed by a senior FI analyst and is supported by graphics that clearly illustrate the forecast trends, motivators and constraints.
The re-equipment cycle for commercial air transports is phenomenal and of proportions never before seen in world aviation. A number of developments have coincided to produce market drivers:
- World air passenger and air freight traffic continues to expand at a substantial rate, while the average ages of existing fleets have been steadily increasing.
- Technical breakthroughs in aviation gas turbines provide the advantages of higher thrust ratings, up to 20 percent lower specific fuel consumption, and increased reliability and maintainability.
- The airline industry has passed through an era of cut-throat competition, resulting in many bankruptcies, acquisitions and mergers, and the carriers now find themselves more in control of their own destiny.
- The drop in oil prices worldwide represents a bonanza for an industry in which the greatest portion of its operating costs is the cost of fuel. Most airlines have now turned the corner into profitability and are seeking new, more efficient airplanes to further grow their business.
Over 25,000 large jet transports are forecast to be built during the 2016-2029 period, with a combined value of $4.03 trillion. This represents only the value of the airplanes sold, and does not include revenues from spare parts and components, maintenance and service, and major retrofit and modernization contracts. Airbus and Boeing will compete nose to nose for this market; both manufacturers have very strong backlogs and each has its superstar products. Incredibly, our projections show them sharing the large commercial airliner market almost equally in terms of both units and value during the forecast period.
The motivating factors driving the commercial transport market will equally benefit the world market for business jets. While airline travel is expanding rapidly, affluent sectors of the business community continue to find advantages in flying their executives directly and quickly to desired destinations in privately owned aircraft.
The world’s Aerospace/Defense industries, while not universally growing in size and scope, are nevertheless vibrant, with continuing innovation and capability. Their biggest challenge will be to develop ever more cost-effective solutions in response to diverse demands from a customer base that is continually plagued with budget constraints at virtually every level. Thus, their activities during the forecast period will test the continuing genius and creativity of their many thousands of employees and their leadership.
The “U.S. Aerospace/Defense Industry in World Context, Current Status & Forecast, 2016-2029” is available via digital download here.