by Dean Lockwood, Forecast International
While the ongoing worldwide economic crisis continues to have a significant negative impact on defense spending, defense intelligence provider Forecast International expects the international light wheeled vehicle market to produce over 36,000 units, worth at least $30.9 billion, through 2024.
Assuming the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) program survives the ongoing budget crisis and enters serial production as scheduled in FY18, the vehicle will utterly dominate the light wheeled vehicle market, just as the HMMWV did between 2005 and 2009. All told, the JLTV could account for 75 percent of production over the next ten years.
The U.S. Department of Defense currently maintains a revised procurement objective of 54,599 JLTVs – 49,099 for the U.S. Army and 5,500 for the U.S. Marine Corps. The U.S. Government Accountability Office estimates that the DoD will spend more than $53.3 billion for the JLTV program – $1.082 billion for RDT&E and at least $52.3 billion for procurement.
The JLTV program is currently in the midst of its 33-month engineering and manufacturing development phase. The three competitors – AM General, Lockheed Martin and Oshkosh – are vying for the low-rate initial production contract, which the U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command expects to award to a single contractor in FY15.
In Russia, production of the BTR-80A, the BTR-82 and BTR-82A, and the GAZ-2975 will provide Arzamas Machine-Building Plant JSC with about 4 percent share of all light wheeled vehicle production worldwide. This level of production makes the Arzamas organization the most prolific producer of light wheeled vehicles in the international market at this time.
Meanwhile, the Type WZ 551 is the new standard Chinese People’s Liberation Army light wheeled combat vehicle. Forecast International research indicates that the PLA may hold a revised procurement objective of more than 3,000 Type WZ 551 series vehicles.
The Type WZ 551 ranks as the second-largest light wheeled vehicle program in terms of volume, accounting for 3 percent of all light wheeled vehicle production worldwide and worth about 1 percent of the market value through 2024.
Given the developmental status of the JLTV, Forecast International notes that the Russian and Chinese light wheeled vehicle efforts rank as the largest market factors, in terms of active serial production.
If anticipated JLTV production is removed from the market forecast, the Arzamas organization would lead the market with about 15 percent of all light wheeled vehicle production worldwide, worth 6 percent of the market’s value. Similarly, in a non-JLTV market forecast, the NORINCO Type WZ 551 would account for 12 percent of all new production, worth 5 percent of the light wheeled vehicle market.