The highly-anticipated selection of the prime builder for the U.S. Air Force’s future sixth-generation fighter took place this past Friday. In an Oval Office announcement, President Trump, joined by top defense officials, revealed Boeing as the recipient of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) contract, underscoring the administration’s strong commitment to the program.
Originally expected to be awarded last year, the contract was delayed when the Air Force paused the program to conduct a strategic review of costs and requirements, deferring any major decisions to the Trump administration. With an Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) contract valued at approximately $20 billion, Boeing will move aggressively on work at its $1.8 billion Advanced Combat Air Facility in St. Louis, set to open in 2026.
Although the F-47 program remains highly classified for security reasons, last week’s announcement did reveal some previously unknown details that offer insight into NGAD’s future.
Experimental aircraft built by Boeing and Lockheed Martin and under the direction of DARPA flew “several hundred hours each” over the past five years to support NGAD development.
While much has been kept secret about NGAD during the past few years, this news suggests the program is farther along than expected and could indicate an accelerated timeline to counter growing fighter aircraft technology threats from China.
In a published statement, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin claimed the F-47 will cost less than the F-22 it is set to replace.
A 2022 Air Force fact sheet places the F-22 Raptor’s unit cost at $143 million. Previous estimates of a crewed NGAD fighter are between $200 million and $300 million per aircraft.
Trump suggested that the F-47 could be offered for export sales in variants with downgraded technology.
Congress prohibited the F-22 from foreign sales for security measures. As the F-47 is expected to dominate the future of air warfare based on its advanced stealth technology and coordination with drone wingmen, it’s unlikely that even a truncated version will be offered for foreign customers at a realistic price point.
Our Take
Boeing’s selection to build the F-47 comes as no surprise. With Lockheed Martin as its sole competitor for NGAD and already building F-35s at nearly maximum capacity, the Pentagon needs to secure a broader industry approach for future fighter technology development and production.
However, Boeing faces significant challenges. The company has struggled with poor performance across several Air Force military aircraft programs. The T-7 trainer jet has experienced several production delays. Additionally, structural cracks were found in new-build KC-46A tankers earlier this month, temporarily stopping deliveries.
Though Boeing has achieved recent success with F-15EX production, deliveries of the fighter to the Air Force were initially delayed due to quality control issues.
The pressure on Boeing to deliver the F-47 on time and within budget is immense. The F-47 decision comes at a crucial juncture for the future of U.S. fighter aircraft. Lockheed Martin is only now beginning to dig out of F-35 software development issues and resumed F-35 deliveries. Meanwhile, China unveiled two new stealth fighter demonstrators late last year.
The Air Force will also face hard funding decisions as it juggles competing priorities over how to challenge and pace China. Affordability will be crucial if the service intends to procure the hundreds of F-47 fighters it plans. Analysts and service officials have argued for the need to expand the minimum planned 100-aircraft B-21 strategic bomber fleet even as unit costs for the B-21 now exceed $700 million.
Few details were revealed during the Oval Office announcement regarding the F-47’s accompanying loyal wingman drones or Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). Anduril’s YFQ-44A and General Atomic’s YFQ-42A will support the first increment of the Air Force’s CCA project.
CCAs, expected to be built before the end of the decade, could represent the Air Force’s best chance to balance force structure and operational capabilities. Expected to operate with the F-35, B-21, and eventually the F-47, these aircraft could help bridge any gaps before the new fighter’s service introduction. Depending on technological advancements, mission needs, and cost considerations, the development of CCAs could influence the future direction of the F-47 program and the broader force structure goals of both aircraft.
Trump’s public F-47 announcement last week signals that the administration is highly aware of the need to respond quickly and resolutely to China’s recent military aerospace developments. Expect increased attention on the F-47 and CCA programs as defense priorities take shape and the administration shifts funding for upcoming FY26 spending plans.
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A former naval officer and helicopter pilot, Jon covers a range of Forecast International reports and products, drawing on his 10-year background in military aviation, operations, and education. His previous military assignments include multiple overseas deployments supporting operations in the Arabian Gulf, NATO exercises, and humanitarian missions. Jon’s work is also influenced by his time as a former Presidential Management Fellow and international trade specialist at the Department of Commerce.
Before joining Forecast International, Jon also served as an NROTC instructor and Adjunct Assistant Professor at the University of Texas, where he taught undergraduate courses on naval history, navigation, defense organization, and naval operations and warfare. A lifelong reader and learner, his academic and professional interests include aviation, political and military history, national defense and security, and foreign area studies.
