PLA Rocket Force units participating in a parade for the PRC’s 70th anniversary in Beijing. Source – People’s Republic of China
As China enters its 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030), Beijing is signaling an acceleration of its long‑standing military modernization efforts. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) 2027 centennial will likely feature early demonstrations of advanced capabilities, particularly in quantum sensing, artificial intelligence (AI), and counter‑hypersonic technologies. Even if these systems are not fully mature, showcasing prototypes or partial integrations would reflect China’s intent to highlight visible progress as it moves toward broader mid‑century objectives.
Background
China’s Five‑Year Plans function as strategic roadmaps that translate national goals into phased, achievable tasks. The 15th Five-Year Plan continues themes central to strengthening technological self‑reliance, expanding indigenous innovation capacity, and cultivating a domestic technical workforce. These priorities support not only civilian development but also China’s ongoing efforts to modernize its military alongside broader national goals.
The PLA’s 100th anniversary in 2027 adds urgency and symbolic weight to these development targets. The plan discusses emerging technologies such as AI-enabled operations, cyberspace capabilities, and low‑altitude systems, reflecting the belief that modern military power is inseparable from rapid progress in science and technology. By emphasizing practical research and building strong talent pipelines, China aims to move scientific breakthroughs into military operational status more quickly.
China’s Path to the PLA’s 2027 Centenary Goals
The centennial represents a major turning point for the PLA, and China’s current Five‑Year Plan designates 2027 as the first major milestone for near‑term modernization. Analysts continue to assess whether China can meet this benchmark. Given the plan’s emphasis on attracting engineers, scientists, and technical professionals, China appears to be deliberately positioning itself to demonstrate meaningful progress by the anniversary. It is reasonable to expect some form of capability unveiling or modernization display aligned with the 2027 celebration.
At the same time, structural challenges remain. Corruption, political reshuffling, and institutional pressure may slow or complicate implementation. A 2024 assessment by the U.S. Department of Defense noted that President Xi’s anti‑corruption campaigns and associated leadership turnover may have disrupted the PLA’s progress toward its 2027 targets.
Long-Term Development Goals
Beyond 2027, China’s modernization timeline extends to 2035 and ultimately 2049. These long‑term objectives include transforming the PLA into a world‑class, technologically advanced force. According to a 2024 congressional report, the 2035 goal focuses on achieving higher levels of innovation, major technological breakthroughs, and leadership in key industries. By 2049, marking the centenary of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), China aims to position itself at the forefront of global manufacturing and advanced industrial systems.
To support these milestones, the PRC follows a two‑step modernization plan. The first phase (2020–2035) aims to achieve basic socialist modernization, including strengthening scientific and technological capabilities and boosting national power. The second phase (2035–2049) seeks to complete China’s transformation into a strong and advanced modern socialist country. These objectives serve as the broader framework guiding military modernization efforts aligned with national development.
Current Integration Efforts in Quantum, AI, and Hypersonic Technologies
China is pursuing several advanced technologies as part of its broader effort to modernize its military within its expected timeline, with quantum research and artificial intelligence standing out as major focus areas. One major line of development involves quantum gravimeters, which could significantly improve the detection and tracking capabilities needed for countering maritime threats.
A key innovation behind this effort is the atomic absolute gravimeter. This device uses lasers to manipulate atoms falling inside a vacuum chamber, creating interference patterns that can be analyzed to extract precise measurements of gravitational acceleration. Instruments like this form the foundation of China’s push toward more capable quantum sensing technologies.
In addition to quantum research, China is also developing artificial intelligence systems designed to counter hypersonic glide vehicles. Studies published in 2022 highlighted AI models capable of predicting the flight path of hypersonic weapons, even when they maneuver unpredictably at low altitudes. According to those findings, the technology could allow defensive systems to generate a response within a three‑minute window, significantly reducing the tactical advantage hypersonic glide vehicles are designed to provide.
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The 15th Five-Year Plan and the 2027 centennial are unlikely to represent a major strategic shift. Instead, they are designed to reinforce expectations of steady, ongoing progress. Showcasing incremental advances in missile forces and AI-enabled sensing allows Beijing to reinforce deterrence at home and abroad while remaining aligned with its long-term modernization objectives.
Alongside headline offensive systems, China appears increasingly focused on counter-capabilities and resilience. Investments in quantum sensing and AI-driven tracking suggest growing emphasis on early warning, precision detection, and defenses against advanced threats, including hypersonic weapons. This orientation contrasts with modernization approaches that tend to emphasize strike capabilities more heavily than detection and resilience.
Although full integration of quantum and AI technologies remains a longer-term goal, sustained funding and an expanding technical workforce point to continued incremental advances through 2030. By the end of the plan period, China could hold a relative edge in select sensing and counter-hypersonic domains, potentially outpacing competitors whose modernization efforts remain more narrowly focused on offensive systems.
Lauren Estrada has a background in global and cyber intelligence, with a strong interest in communicating technical threats to non-technical audiences. She currently works as an Editor & Analyst with Forecast International and Military Periscope, where she contributes to research and analysis on defense technologies. Her previous experience includes defense technology research, regional risk assessments, client-facing intelligence reports, trend analysis, threat of actor behavior, and cyber-focused research.
While pursuing her B.S. in Global Security and Intelligence Studies at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Prescott, Lauren co-led a cross-disciplinary initiative to introduce cybersecurity fundamentals to students across all majors. Her team designed and proposed a course that bridged cybersecurity and non-technical disciplines, fostering inclusive engagement with cyber skills. This work led to speaking engagements at university industry board meetings and the 2025 National Conference on Undergraduate Research in Pittsburgh, PA.
