A Forecast International blog about the arms trade, geopolitics, defense and security, and military spending.
Context Operation Epic Fury began at 01:15 Eastern time on February 28th, 2026. In the first 24 hours of strikes on Iran, American B-2 bombers, stealth fighter jets, reconnaissance aircraft, …
The Naval Targets – and Implications – of Operation Epic Fury Read More
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a high-intensity conflict that will test munitions inventories and production lines. In the initial days of the operation against Iran, the U.S. …
War with Iran Puts Pressure on Munitions Inventories and Signals Future Demand Read More
Iranian security strategy largely rests on the country’s short- and medium-range missile arsenal, developed as a national means to deter Tehran’s rivals and, in the event of conflict, impose unacceptable costs. Thus Iran fired multiple salvoes at Israel in 2024, as part of its ‘True Promise’ I and II operations, and launched more this past June during the ‘Twelve-Day War’. Iran also hit the Gulf during these missions, and with renewed hostilities breaking out, appears to be more heavily targeting its littoral neighbors.
Iranian Missile, Drone Strikes Target Gulf Countries Read More
Following the “12-Day War” with Israel in June 2025, the Iranian government accelerated negotiations with Russia and China to procure advanced missile systems. According to recent reports from the Financial Times and Reuters, these talks persisted even after the international arms embargo was reinstated in September.
Iran Turned to Russia, China for Missiles After 12-Day War Read More
On Tuesday, a U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Lightning II fighter operating from the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) aircraft carrier shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea. Reports indicate …
U.S. F-35C Downs Iranian Drone Amid Escalation in the Gulf Read More
The Pentagon has released a new National Defense Strategy (NDS) that represents a shift in Washington’s strategic posture, placing renewed emphasis on homeland defense, bolstering U.S. influence in the Western …
National Defense Strategy Prioritizes the Western Hemisphere, Shifts Burden-Sharing to Allies Read More
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has officially activated Task Force Scorpion Strike (TFSS), the military’s first dedicated one-way kamikaze drone squadron in the Middle East. This milestone was punctuated on December …
LUCAS: Scaling the Drone War Read More
Israel’s recent air war with Iran ended over six weeks ago and military analysts are still dissecting its successes, failures, and tactical innovations. The Wall Street Journal featured a deep …
Israel-Iran Air War: Lessons from a Brief but Intense Conflict Read More
A fragile ceasefire appears to be holding between Iran and Israel following a period of escalating violence, culminating in a covert U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. In the days …
Tentative Ceasefire Takes Hold Following Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes Read More
Between June 21 and 22, 2025, during a nighttime mission dubbed “Operation Midnight Hammer,” U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri struck Iran’s underground nuclear sites …
With GBU-57s, U.S. Finally Deploys Weapon Designed Specifically for Iran’s Hardened Nuclear Sites Read More