A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Political Developments
Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China to meet with his counterpart, Wang Yi in Guangzhou, representing the first visit by a Ukrainian foreign minister since the war began. Kuleba said he wants to find common ground with China to help end the war. “I am convinced that a just peace in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interests, and China’s role as a global force for peace is important,” Kuleba said. China’s foreign ministry said “all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity”, but that “the legitimate security concerns of any party should be taken seriously.” The latter refers to Russia’s concerns about NATO’s eastward expansion. While China may not be directly selling weapons to Moscow, Russian forces have utilized dual-use goods from China that can serve military purposes, such as drones and electronics. Ukraine claims Russia has also used Chinese artillery shells, which could have been sourced from another country.
A top Ukrainian presidential adviser has likened a peace deal with Russia to a pact with the devil, warning it would only provide Putin with a temporary respite to regroup and intensify the war.
Germany’s Rheinmetall announced a contract from Kyiv to build an ammunition plant in Ukraine. The exact value of the contract was not revealed, but it was said to be worth in the low three-digit million euro range. Construction is expected to begin soon and will take two years to complete. The company’s CEO was an alleged target of a foiled Russian-backed assassination plot several weeks ago.
The FSB arrested a former Russian deputy defense minister on corruption charges on Friday. Dmitry Bulgakov served in the position from 2008 to September 2022, when he was removed from his post amid Russian operational challenges in Ukraine. Bulgakov is the latest in a line of defense officials to be hit with corruption charges after a cabinet shake-up earlier this year saw President Vladimir Putin replace long-time Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
A car bomb exploded in Moscow on Thursday, apparently targeting GRU official Andrei Torgashov, though he later denied he was attacked in a comment to RIA Novosti. Kommersant reported, “Despite the fact that the 49-year-old major allegedly served in military intelligence and dealt with secure communications, his details were published online long before the assassination attempt. This could have helped the attackers choose their victim.”
Military Assistance to Ukraine
The E.U. has begun utilizing the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, according to a European Commission statement published on Friday. The statement said that the first EUR1.5 billion has already been paid out “to support Ukraine’s military capabilities as well as to support the country’s reconstruction.” Russian assets in the European financial system were impounded after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. In May, the E.U. agreed to use interest and dividend income from those assets to fund support for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Antonov has signed an agreement with Boeing for the joint production of unmanned systems. The Ukrainian military has made wide use of unmanned systems in its war with Russia.
The Netherlands and Denmark will soon deliver 14 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks to Ukraine. The tanks, pledged last year, have been undergoing refurbishment in Germany ahead of delivery to the battlefield and should be ready for transfer “before the end of the summer,” according to the Netherlands’ Ministry of Defense.
Latvia’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement on July 22 confirming that the Czech Republic has joined the multilateral drone initiative supporting Ukraine, becoming the 16th state to participate in the project. Latvia said separately this week that it was ready to deliver over 500 drones.
The Ukrainian government is claiming to be close to fielding its own long-range strike missiles. Ukrainian defense companies began work on long-range missiles before the start of the war with Russia. Kyiv is working on these missiles as its tries to convince its Western allies to provide longer range weapons.
Thales has won a new contract for its Lightweight Multirole Missile (LLM). This contract is worth GBP176 million. Thales said the contract involves the production of a “significant number” of LMMs. Hundreds of LMMs have been delivered to Ukraine as well.
The Pentagon found another $2 billion worth of accounting errors for military equipment donated to Ukraine. The U.S. overestimated the value of donations, which potentially frees up $2 billion for additional weapons transfers. A similar accounting error occurred last year in which the Pentagon had made calculations using the replacement value for gear instead of the depreciated value, which freed up $6.2 billion in funding for additional donations.
Battlefield Updates
Repeated Ukrainian USV, UAV, and missile strikes on Russian warships have forced Russia to relocate warships from the Black Sea Fleet to bases further away from Ukraine. In a statement on his Facebook page on July 24, Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk boasted that Russia had emptied the Sea of Azov of naval vessels.
“There are no more Russian warships in the Sea of Azov. It seems they have started to suspect something,” Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk wrote on his Facebook page.
Despite a high casualty count in the war, Russia continues to recruit between 25,000-30,000 new soldiers per month. To incentivize personnel to continue signing up for the war, Russia has reportedly started offering massive sign-on bonuses, as high as RUB1.9 million ($22,000).
A Ukrainian attack involving ATACMS missiles and drones struck Russia’s Saky airfield in occupied Crimea early Friday. Powerful explosions and subsequent detonations were reported, with witnesses describing the sound of cooking off ammunition.
Moscow and Kyiv launched drone, missile, and artillery attacks Sunday, killing at least two people in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region and injuring several people in Ukraine. Moscow says it has gained ground in eastern Ukraine by taking control of two villages, one in Kharkiv and one in Luhansk.
Ukrainian air defenders engaged another Russian drone attack. The Russian operation involved 23 drones. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 17 of these aerial threats using missiles and electronic warfare equipment. Separately, Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted a barrage of 38 Shahed-series attack drones launched by Russia during the night of July 24-25.
Ukraine is using low-cost acoustic sensors scattered around the country to identify Russian drones and relay targeting information back to Ukrainian troops to take them out. The network is known as Sky Fortress and uses around 9,500 sensors that cost around $500 a piece. Russia, meanwhile, is employing large numbers of cheap drones to identify the location of Ukrainian air-defenses, a Ukrainian official told Reuters.
Flashy combat videos depicting successful drone strikes on armored vehicles draw a lot of attention on social media, but in a recent speech, Carnegie Endowment fellow Michael Kofman highlighted other key roles that UAVs are playing on the battlefield, such as laying defensive mines and moving supplies. He pointed to Ukrainian operations around the village of Krynky, where Ukrainian soldiers heavily relied on small drones to ferry supplies out to the frontlines.
For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com
