A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Political Developments
Both the United Kingdom and the United States might lift current restrictions on Ukraine’s use of its Western provided long-range missiles against targets deep inside of Russia, in response to repeated Ukrainian requests for the limitations to be removed. Though Ukraine has received long-range weapons from the U.S., U.K., and France, its strikes into Russia have been performed only with Ukrainian-made missiles and drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin took aim at the issue on Thursday, telling media that NATO removing restrictions on striking Russian territory would be considered an act of war.
“This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us,” President Putin said.
In practice, however, Russia is now operating as though Washington has already given the green-light for the use of ATACMS and other weapons against Russian territory, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Russian defense exports have been ‘temporarily curtailed’ amid the war in Ukraine, according to a Russian official. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov told Vedomosti in a recent interview, “We must not forget about military-technical cooperation with other countries. We have curtailed it temporarily – deliveries to the main customer are now a priority. But we will work more actively in this direction.”
While Russian arms sales have fallen, Moscow has stepped up the import of weapons from abroad for its war effort, while also working to circumvent Western sanctions designed to inhibit its defense supply chain. The United States announced Tuesday that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran for use in Ukraine, prompting new sanctions on ships and companies involved in the weapons supply. The U.S. says Iran trained Russian troops to use the Fath-360 missile system, which has a range of 75 miles. (Iran denies supplying ballistic missiles, dismissing the claims as Western propaganda.)
Ukrainian investigative outlet InformNapalm published a report this week claiming that Russia has contracted a Kazakh company to service French avionics in Russia’s Su-30SM fighter jets. As part of its military modernization effort in the years before invading Ukraine, Russia worked to replace foreign components in its military hardware, but many of its advanced systems continue to retain parts and systems produced abroad.
Russia and Uzbekistan may cooperate on the production of civilian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the Central Asian country, a Russian official announced this week. Central Asia’s countries have come under close scrutiny from Western governments since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, over concern that Moscow could use its ties to the region to circumvent sanctions on the Russian defense industry. Russia’s bilateral economic trade with Uzbekistan has risen significantly over the past few years, reaching $10 billion last year.
Military Assistance to Ukraine
Kyiv is working with the United States and its European allies to develop alternatives to the Ukrainian Army’s inventory of Russian-made missiles. Ukraine has received Western-made air defense systems, but not in sufficiently quantities to completely replace the Russian SAMs already in service. Ukraine has between 25 and 30 S-300 SAMs of different models in its inventory. Ukraine and its allies have worked on integrating Western weapons on its Russian aircraft and air defense platforms. Now, defense companies in the U.S, Europe and Ukraine are reportedly developing replacements for the Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile (SAM) and the R-27 air-to-air missile (AAM) currently operational with the Ukrainian military.
With Slovakia on the fence about pursuing a purchase of 12 AH-1Z attack helicopters, the Ukrainian government is pushing for Washington to sell them to the Ukrainian military instead. The 12 helicopters were originally produced for Pakistan, but the program froze before physical deliveries to Pakistan took place.
Sweden announced its 17th military aid package to Ukraine on September 9. The tranche of aid is worth SEK4.6 billion ($451.1 million) and will cover the delivery of surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank weapons as well as funding for drones.
The Netherlands is going to provide maintenance equipment and materials for Ukraine’s F-16s, as well as air-to-air missiles that the aircraft can use to defend Ukrainian airspace.
Portugal has completed the handover of Ka-32A11BC helicopters to Ukraine, the Portuguese Ministry of National Defense announced. The delivery was originally announced in October 2022 and transfers got underway this past April.
Battlefield Updates
The Russian military has begun a large counterattack in Kursk, aiming to drive back the Ukrainian forces that stormed across the border starting on August 6. On Tuesday, Russia stated that it had clawed back 1,000 square kilometers of Kursk after intensive fighting with Ukrainian troops. As part of that Russian operation, the Russian military used an Orion drone to perform a combat strike with a new guided munition on a Ukrainian T-64, according to media reports.
Moscow will not engage in peace negotiations with Kyiv while Ukrainian troops are on Russian soil, Russian Security Council secretary Sergei Shoigu said this week.
Both combatants continued their air campaign against one another this week, with Ukrainian performing its largest air strike on Moscow since the start of the war with Russia. The number of drones that targeted Moscow is not known, but Russian air defense forces claim to have destroyed at least 20 Ukrainian drones over the Moscow region. In addition, Russia said it intercepted another 124 drones across eight other regions.
Though Ukraine has received drones from abroad to aid its defense, many of its systems are built locally. This week, the 54th Mechanized Brigade’s drone operators showed off new Shark reconnaissance UAVs, funding for which was provided by the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation. The drones are manufactured by Ukrspecsystems, a Ukrainian company.
Ukrainian air defense forces engaged Russian missiles and drones during the night of September 9. Air defense units intercepted two Kh-59/69 missiles and six Shahed attack drones. The air defense units engaging these threats were located in the Kyiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Moscow has used missiles and drones to attack Ukraine’s infrastructure, especially its power generation network. The U.S. and U.K. have promised nearly $1.5 billion in new aid to Ukraine during a diplomatic visit to Ukraine Wednesday, largely to help rebuild the country’s energy grid that has been heavily damaged by Russian strikes. The U.S. said it will provide more than $700 million in humanitarian aid, while the U.K. pledged $782 million in aid and loan guarantees.
Warfare in the Black Sea ramped up this week. Russia struck a cargo ship carrying Ukrainian wheat to Egypt, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Thursday. The vessel was traveling through Romania’s exclusive economic zone when it was hit by a Kh-22 anti-ship missile.
A Russian Su-30 fighter jet crashed in the Black Sea, which according to Ukraine was after being hit by a shoulder-fired air-defense missile.
For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com
