A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Source: Ukraine Ministry of DefensePolitical Developments
Former President Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on November 5, paving the way for his return to the White House. One day after the election, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to the U.S. President-elect on the phone, stating, “We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation. Strong and unwavering U.S. leadership is vital for the world and for a just peace.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, issued congratulations to Trump and said he would pick up the phone should Trump call.
Along the campaign trail, Trump pledged to quickly end the war in Ukraine. His plan, however, has been short on details.
Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin said Moscow is open to negotiations — but stated that talks need to proceed based on the reality on the ground as well as the Istanbul ‘agreements’, referring to the negotiations that ran from February to April 2022, in the first few months of war. That dialogue ultimately broke down without any signed agreement, as evidence of extensive Russian war crimes in the town of Bucha began emerging. This week, RFE/RL published a copy of one of the initial draft agreements from those talks, which called for Ukraine to become a “permanently neutral state” with a military capped at 50,000 personnel. Russia also sought to limit the range of the missiles in Ukraine’s inventory and force Kyiv to pay for reconstruction of Donetsk and other captured territory, in exchange for a ceasefire.
Tension between the U.S. and Russia remains high. On November 4, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russia is suspected of planting incendiary devices meant for U.S.-bound commercial airplanes, as part of a broader sabotage campaign against the West.
Russia’s parliament ratified the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with North Korea, which envisions mutual military assistance between the two countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed the agreement in Pyongyang in June.
Military Assistance to Ukraine
Trump’s election is likely to be highly consequential for U.S. aid to Ukraine. With the election results clear, the Biden administration has been working to push out the remaining $6 billion in authorized aid before January’s inauguration, over concern that the incoming administration could put a halt to military assistance.
Late last week, the U.S. announced a $425 million security assistance package for Ukraine that includes air defense interceptors, munitions for rocket launchers and artillery, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. The package includes National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) munitions, Stinger air defense missiles, counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS) equipment and munitions, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) ammunition, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank weapons, Stryker vehicles, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as other gear. The equipment is being donated directly from U.S. inventories.
France has started sending 100 short-range OSKAR loitering munitions to Ukraine as part of a broader effort to eventually send 2,000 drones of various types. The OSKAR drones are made by French manufacturer Delair and KNDS France.
Australia is donating 14 rigid hull boats to Ukraine to use for coastal defense. The boats are valued at AUD14 million ($9.2 million). Australia has provided more than AUD1.3 billion ($858 million) in military aid since the start of the war.
Lithuania has provided Ukraine with 230 pickup trucks and 240 metal detectors.
Battlefield Updates
Given the prominence of Russian jamming on the battlefield, both the U.S. and Ukraine have been working towards making ‘jam-resistant’ equipment. Media reports this week highlighted a Ukrainian drone that uses fiber optic cable to relay instructions from the operator to the drone for one-way attack missions. The U.S. has supplied V-BAT drones are able to continue performing intelligence and reconnaissance missions even in a heavy electronic warfare environment.
Overnight on Monday, Ukrainian air-defenses engaged a new Russian missile and drone barrage that reportedly included a pair of Kh-59 air-to-surface missiles and 79 drones, plus an unspecified number of guided bombs.
Russia has launched over 2,000 attack drones at Ukraine in the past month alone. But while Russian air attacks on Ukraine continue, its usage of certain missile systems has decreased, prompting Ukrainian analysts to suspect that Russia is building its stockpiles back up. One expert told Ukrinform that the number of 9M728 Iskander-K, 9M723 Iskander-M, Kh-101, and Kalibr missile strikes has noticeably declined in recent weeks.
Ukraine carried out its drone strikes this week on November 6, reportedly targeting a pair of Pr.11611 Gepard-class frigates in the Caspian Sea. The extent of damage was not immediately clear.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly engaged with North Korean troops for the first time, according to Ukraine’s defense minister. Another government official claimed Ukrainian soldiers fired artillery at North Korean positions along the Russian border. The claims could not be verified.
For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com
image sources
- Lithuania trucks: Ukraine Ministry of Defense
