This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (January 3)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

emergency vehicles parked near city rubbleSource: The State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Emergency crews observe damage from a drone strike in Kyiv on New Year’s Day

Political Developments

In the face of continued Russian attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he wouldn’t give up on retaking land currently occupied by Russia, including Crimea. He acknowledge that ousting Russia would require a combination of military force and diplomatic pressure from the West.

Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange that was organized with the help of the United Arab Emirates. Kyiv said 189 Ukrainians were freed, while Russian sources indicated 150 people were released on each side.

Moscow is bolstering its conscription efforts to replace mounting casualties. While Russia has long used convicts to bolster the ranks, the government is now pressuring detained suspects not yet convicted of a crime to join the military. Russia is also targeting people with large debts and immigrants.

Russia’s new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) relies heavily on western made components.  These parts are arriving in Russia from Germany and Japan despite sanctions against their export.

Russian gas transit through Ukraine has halted following the expiration of a five-year agreement, ending a decades-long energy arrangement. While the EU claims preparedness for this shift, countries like Moldova are already facing gas shortages.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. is providing another $3.4 billion in non-military budgetary aid to Ukraine, bringing total to over $30 billion since the start of the war. That funding is largely used to help keep Ukrainian government services running.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The U.S. announced a $2.5 billion military aid package for Ukraine, comprising $1.25 billion worth of equipment being donated from U.S. inventory and $1.22 billion being provided through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which is used to buy equipment directly from manufacturers. A White House statement said all USAI funds provided by Congress have now been allocated. The latest aid package includes air defense missiles, munitions for rocket systems and artillery, anti-tank weapons, unmanned aerial systems, and other capabilities.

Frankenburg Technologies, based in Estonia, plans to conduct tests of its Mark 1 counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) missile in Ukraine early this year. The weapon is intended to serve as a lower cost solution for countering enemy drones.

Ukraine is hoping to raise over $1 billion in the coming year for its defense industry through the ‘Danish model’, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on January 3. Over the summer, Denmark provided funding to the Ukrainian defense industry to finance the production of 18 2S22 Bohdana 155mm self-propelled howitzers. To date, Ukraine has received around EUR150 million ($154.3 million) from Denmark, France, and Lithuania to support its defense sector.

The Swedish Defense Ministry announced on January 2 that it will provide SEK300 million ($27 million) to Romania to support the country’s purchase of replacement Patriot air-defense systems. Bucharest donated a Patriot system to Ukraine last year.

Battlefield Updates

Russia has maintained a high pace of military operations across the front, utilizing dispersed troops to test Ukrainian defenses. At times, Russian soldiers are utilizing electric scooters, ATVs, and civilian cars, rather than combat vehicles. Russian forces continue their siege of Pokrovsk in what Ukrainian officials say is currently the most intense area of enemy ground assaults along the front. The city’s battered electric grid failed on Monday.

All told, Russia advanced almost 4,000 square kilometers in 2024, according to an AFP report, which was seven times greater than the ground it captured in 2023.

Ukraine continues to deal with issues of personnel shortages. Reports this week revealed that 1,700 troops went AWOL from the 155th Mechanized Brigade — a newly-created unit equipped with Caesar howitzers and Leopard tanks — during its nine-month initial training program, which included exercises in Poland and France. Some 500 remain missing from the unit.

Russia launched at least 111 drones against targets across Ukraine in an overnight attack leading into New Year’s Day. The targets spanned 10 regions throughout the country, including Kyiv. Ukrainian officials say 63 drones were shot down and 46 failed to hit their target. One person was killed and several others injured when an apartment building was hit.

Ukraine has attacked additional targets inside Russia using British-supplied missiles.  The Ukrainians attacked a Russian command center located in the Kursk region on December 30, 2024, using the Storm Shadow missile.

The Ukrainian government has announced that its air defense forces had intercepted more than 1,300 missiles and 11,200 attack drones during 2024. In a first, a Ukrainian USV armed with R-73 missiles shot down a Russian Mi-8 on December 31, the first such shoot-down of a helicopter by an unmanned vessel.

A video released by the government of Ukraine showed Ukrainian Su-25 Frogfoot jets using Hammer precision guided munitions provided by France. The rocket-boosted weapons are known as Armement Air-Sol Modulaire (AASM; Modular Air-to-Ground Armament) in France, and they can be used to strike targets at distances of over 40 miles.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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