This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (March 14)

Ukraine has exhausted its supply of ATACMS having received fewer than 40 missiles. Photo Source: U.S. Army.

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Political Developments

U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia for talks after Washington temporarily halted military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The pause followed a tense public meeting at the White House between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. As a result of this week’s talks, Ukraine expressed willingness to implement a 30-day interim ceasefire, with the possibility of extension if all parties agreed. As part of the agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine, Washington pledged to resume military aid shipments and intelligence sharing. Trump also stated that he is considering imposing sanctions on Russia until it agrees to a ceasefire and peace settlement.

Russia said it was open to a ceasefire in principle but laid out a series of issues that must be discussed before it would be willing to sign an agreement, including whether Ukraine will be allowed to continue receiving arms shipments during a ceasefire and how a ceasefire would be enforced.

Moscow, however, has insisted to Washington that the U.S. special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, be excluded from the U.S.-Russia dialogue, over Russian criticism that he is too close to Kyiv.

The United Kingdom said it is willing to deploy troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force. “The UK is ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary,” Defence Minister Luke Pollard said. The U.K. is arranging a call for members of the coalition of the willing to discuss the potential for sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. Australia is among the countries that have considered the idea of contributing troops to a peacekeeping force. Putin has previously said he would not agree Western peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Representatives from over 30 countries met in Paris this week to discuss a possible international force in Ukraine.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

By late January 2025, Ukraine had used up its limited supply of ATACMS, having received fewer than 40 of the missile systems.

But with Washington restoring military aid, there are prospects for Ukraine to receive more advanced precision weapons. Officials told Reuters this week that the U.S. planned to make shipments to Ukraine of an updated version of the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb.

The U.K. and allies agreed to provide continued military support to Ukraine.  The new contracts, totaling nearly GBP30 million and backed by the International Fund for Ukraine, will result in Anduril UK supplying cutting-edge Altius 600m and Altius 700m drones – known as loitering munitions – that are designed to monitor an area before striking targets that enter it.

Germany has offered more IRIS-T surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to Ukraine.  Kyiv has signed a memorandum of understanding with Diehl Defence.  The memorandum includes a threefold increase in the supply of missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine.  The IRIS-T is helping to protect Ukrainian cities and key infrastructure.

France will provide a new EUR195 million arms package to Ukraine, Minister of Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu announced, to include 155mm shells, AASM bombs, and AMX-10RC main battle tanks. Lecornu noted that Paris will use the interest income from frozen Russian government securities to pay for the assistance. French lawmakers have been pushing for France to confiscate the securities themselves, but no decision has been taken on that to date.

The U.K. has ruled out donating Typhoon fighter jets to Ukraine. Instead, the U.K. will continue supporting F-16 operations, including pilot training.

Starlink CEO Elon Musk warned on his X social media platform that Ukraine’s lines would ‘collapse’ if Starlink was disabled. As many as 40,000 Starlink terminals are active in Ukraine. Considering Ukraine’s dependency on Starlink, Kyiv’s European partners have been exploring alternatives for the satellite network. Four European companies are in negotiations to provide that back-up, according to a Financial Times report.

Battlefield Updates

Over the past week, Ukraine has been hit by over 2,000 missiles and drones.  Russia fired 119 attack drones during the night of March 8, targeting multiple regions. On the night of March 13, 2025, Russia launched another attack against Ukraine, employing both drones and a ballistic missile.

This strike continues Moscow’s pattern of using thousands of drones and missiles to target Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. Russia has moreover performed ‘double tap’ strikes, according to Ukrainian authorities, in which an initial salvo is followed by another as emergency responders get to the site.

For the first time, Ukraine’s SAMP/T surface-to-air missile (SAM) system has shot down a Russian aircraft.  Kyiv has two SAMP/T air defense batteries equipped with the ASTER missile.  Each battery has a cost of $500 million. Ukraine has also used its Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft to counter a recent Russian air strike.  This is the first combat sortie for Ukraine’s Mirage 2000s.  In an overnight attack on March 6-7, Russia launched 67 missiles and 194 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Ukraine is utilizing balloon-launched drones to defend against Russian drone attacks.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense will spend UAH110 billion ($2.7 billion) on drones in 2025, which should cover the acquisition of 4.5 million ‘first-person view’ UAVs, used for reconnaissance and strikes.

Russia on Tuesday claimed it shot down 337 Ukrainian drones across 10 regions, marking one of Kyiv’s largest drone attacks against Russia since the start of the war.

The U.S. Congressional Research Service issued a new report on Ukraine’s military performance and outlook. Ukraine continues to demonstrate high levels of tactical flexibility and capability in the field, but combat losses and exhaustion continue to degrade performance, according to the report.

Ukraine is losing part of its foothold in Russia’s Kursk region. Russian forces retook Sudzha, the largest town in Kursk that Ukraine occupied. “In the course of the offensive operations, units of the North military group liberated the settlements of Melovoy, Podol and Sudzha,” the Russian defense ministry announced Thursday. Amid the renewed Russian push to restore control of Kursk, Ukraine removed Maj. Gen. Dmytro Krasylnykov, the head of the Northern Operational Command, from his post. The Command’s responsibilities include Sumy, from which Ukraine launched the Kursk offensive in August last year.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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