The Canadian government is re-evaluating its planned purchase of F-35A fighter jets due to the escalating trade tensions with the United States. Prime Minister Mark Carney has directed Defense Minister Bill Blair to review the program, but officials stress that the contract has not been canceled or modified.
“To be clear, the F-35 contract has not been canceled, but we need to do our homework given the changing environment, and make sure that the contract in its current form is in the best interests of Canadians and the Canadian Armed Forces,” said Laurent de Casanove, Blair’s press secretary.
The current acquisition plan calls for the procurement of 88 F-35s at a cost of approximately CAD19 billion ($13.3 billion). Funding has been committed for the first 16 aircraft, with deliveries expected to begin next year. The new fighters are replacing Canada’s legacy CF-18 Hornets. The CF-18 replacement program has long been a politically charged issue in Canada, and it remains years behind schedule.
Over a decade ago, Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government announced plans to buy 65 F-35s. The program was later halted by Justin Trudeau, who promised during campaign speeches not to buy the F-35. However, Trudeau’s government ultimately selected the F-35 in a subsequent competition, beating out the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and Saab Gripen. In response to the delays, Canada has been forced to extend the operational life of its aging CF-18 fleet and even purchased second-hand F/A-18 Hornets from Australia to bridge a capability gap.
The current spat isn’t the first time the CF-18 replacement has been impacted by trade disputes, as Boeing’s Super Hornet was dropped from the competition following the U.S. company’s trade complaint against Canadian aerospace manufacturer Bombardier. Had the current trade war erupted before the F-35 selection, it is conceivable that Canada would have also ruled out the F-35 in favor of the Saab Gripen, the only other competitor in the final stages of the selection process.
Now that the procurement is underway, abandoning the F-35 would be a complex and costly decision. If relations improve in the coming months, the program will likely proceed as planned. However, should tensions escalate further, Canada may be forced to reconsider its commitment. One potential compromise could involve a mixed fleet. “[The F-35] was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives – whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35,” Blair recently stated in an interview.
Operating a mixed fleet would come with increased logistical and financial burdens, including higher training and maintenance costs. Furthermore, Canada’s participation in the F-35 program provides domestic companies with opportunities to bid for international F-35 contracts, but these benefits are not guaranteed. Saab, in contrast, offered a guaranteed economic benefits package for Canadian industry in its Gripen bid.
Changes to the fighter program could also impact the procurement of weapons Canada is planning to buy for the F-35, including short- and medium-range missiles and guided bombs. Ottawa has reportedly also earmarked an additional CAD6 billion for future weapons purchases for the new fleet, which could include new air-to-air missiles as well as other, undetermined capabilities.
Trade War Fallout
Canada’s decision to review the F-35 program stems directly from rapidly deteriorating relations between Washington and Ottawa. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, citing a trade deficit and drugs crossing the border, and he has also repeatedly made provocative comments about annexing Canada and referring to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor.”
The trade dispute has already had significant economic and political ramifications. Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., and while Trump temporarily paused some tariffs for a month, Canada’s retaliatory measures remain in place. Carney, who recently replaced Justin Trudeau, has remained steadfast against U.S. economic pressure – a stance that may be boosting his party’s rising poll numbers. Trudeau’s plummeting approval ratings ultimately led to his resignation.
Broader Defense Implications
The F-35 reassessment signals that worsening diplomatic ties between the two typically close allies may spill over into national security issues. The stakes are high, as the U.S. and Canadian defense industries are deeply linked, to the extent that the U.S. considers Canadian defense companies as part of its own domestic industrial base.
There are also ongoing joint defense efforts between the U.S. and Canada. For example, the two countries are jointly working on modernization efforts for North America Aerospace and Defense Command (NORAD), including new radars that will likely tie into Trump’s ambitious Golden Dome missile defense system. Last year, Canada also signed the ICE Pact with the U.S. and Finland to enhance collaboration on polar icebreaker development. In January, Trump criticized Canada for seeking involvement in U.S. Coast Guard procurement, saying, “I like doing that if they’re a state, but I don’t like doing that if they’re a nation”. If tensions continue to escalate, these and other defense initiatives could come under increased scrutiny.
Shaun's deep-rooted interest in military equipment continues in his role as a senior defense analyst with a focus on the United States. He played an integral role in the development of Forecast International's U.S. Defense Budget Forecast, an interactive online product that tracks Pentagon acquisition programs throughout the congressional budget process. As editor of International Military Markets – North America, Shaun has cultivated a deep understanding of the vast defense markets in the United States and Canada. He is a regular contributor to Forecast International's Defense & Security Monitor blog and has co-authored white papers on global defense spending and various military programs.
