This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (May 23)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

A tank drives down a dirt path in a forest Source: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
Australia has begun transferring 49 second-hand M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Pictured here,  a 1st Armoured Regiment M1A1 Abrams tank patrols the Shoalwater Bay training area during a live-fire training exercise. 

Political Developments

During the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since the 2022 invasion, Russia questioned the legitimacy of President Zelensky and reiterated its intent to annex occupied Ukrainian territories, raising concerns about its sincerity in negotiations. Zelensky has accused Russia of trying to stall peace negotiations so it can continue military operations.

President Trump has signaled a shift away from U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict, telling European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky that Russia and Ukraine must resolve the war on their own. This change follows a call with President Putin and marks a retreat from earlier commitments to support Ukraine and pursue sanctions against Russia.

Following a recent phone call with Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism about Russia’s willingness to pursue peace, but Western leaders and analysts widely dismissed this as naïve, citing Moscow’s continued stalling tactics and uncompromising demands. While Russian state media celebrated the call as a diplomatic win, Putin’s delegation at the latest talks in Istanbul reinforced Russia’s hardline stance, insisting on major territorial concessions and suggesting the war could continue indefinitely if its terms are not met.

The EU approved a 17th round of sanctions against Russia that doubles the number of Russian ships banned from accessing ports. The ships are considered part of Moscow’s shadow fleet used to transport Russian oil. The EU also placed restrictions on a major Russian oil company, as well as more than 45 other Russian companies and individuals connected to the defense industry.

The U.K. announced new sanctions against 100 new entities tied to Russia’s military, energy, and financial sectors.

Russia has appointed Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev as the new commander of Russia’s ground forces, replacing General Oleg Salyukov. Mordvichev has been a proponent of Russia’s “meat grinder” approach to ground warfare where waves of soldiers rush an objective, despite heavy casualties.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

Belgium is providing Ukraine with a military aid package worth 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion). The donation includes around 100 Unimog trucks, including armored ambulances; five unmanned surface vessels; 20 upgraded Cerberus air defense systems; drones; portable drone detection systems; and other gear, such as medical equipment, night vision goggles, and helmets. Much of the aid  – 645 million euros – will be used to procure gear from Belgian companies. Belgium is also giving Ukraine a single Leopard 1A5 tank outfitted with a new automated turret, which will serve as a test platform.

Australia has begun to ship 49 second-hand M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but a delivery date has not been announced. The U.S. authorized the transfer of American tanks. However, Washington has questioned the value of the tanks, noting weaker top armor that could be susceptible to drone attacks.

The European Commission will allow Finland to use 90 million euros ($101.4 million) in frozen Russian assets to buy ammunition for Ukraine. The EU estimates it holds around 210 billion euros worth of frozen Russian assets, which are primarily government bonds that serve as reserves for Russia’s central bank. Moscow has said that any move to seize or sell its frozen assets would be illegal.

Milrem Robotics will supply the French company CNIM Systemes Industriels with six THeMIS UGVs, which will be integrated with route clearance systems and delivered to Ukraine.  Financed by the French government, ROCUS UGVs will be delivered to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SESU) for rapid ground clearance.

Italy announced it will provide Ukraine with 400 VCC-2 Camilino armored personnel carriers, which are variants of the M113 APC. The donation includes a mix of operational vehicles and other that will be used for spare parts. The vehicles, which have been in storage in Italy, are equipped with gear to connect to surveillance satellite networks to improve situational awareness.

Battlefield Updates

On May 20, Ukraine claimed that Russian attacks across the country killed at least one civilian and injured 13 others. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted 93 of 108 Shahed attack drones launched by Russia.

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it shot down 105 Ukrainian drones overnight on May 22, including 35 near Moscow, prompting the temporary closure of major airports in the capital and surrounding regions. Moscow’s mayor stated that all drones were headed toward the city.

Putin visited Kursk for the first time since Moscow’s claim that it took the territory back from Ukrainian forces, according to state media. Ukraine had taken a part of the Russian territory last summer, but Russia has been making progress pushing Ukrainian forces out. Kyiv still insists it has troops trying to maintain a foothold in Kursk.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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