This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (September 19)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Soldiers work with unmanned ground vehicles in a forestSource: 33rd Mechanized Brigade
Ukrainian soldiers utilize various types of robotic systems.

Political Developments

Russia and Belarus are conducting sweeping military drills that showcase both conventional and nuclear capabilities, significantly raising tensions with NATO. Minsk did, however, invite U.S. military officers to observe the exercise.

Amid concerns over wavering U.S. support, Ukraine is pushing its local manufacturers to boost self-sufficiency and ramp up arms production. However, according to Ukraine’s defense-procurement chief, air defense remains a complex bottleneck that cannot be as easily produced domestically to meet the country’s extensive needs. Sourcing critical components for various systems also remains a key challenge for the nation’s industry.

The war in Ukraine continues to impact weapon designs and the approach to military capabilities abroad. For example, European defense company ARX Robotics has unveiled a new combat robot designed to meet specific battlefield challenges, based on direct input from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The European Union is considering ways to further utilize frozen Russian financial assets to aid Ukraine, including a possible ‘reparation loan’ that would only require repayment from Kyiv once Russia has provided compensation. Such a loan would have to be constructed in a way to bypass a probable Hungarian veto, Reuters reported. Berlin previously opposed such a move, but is now warming to the idea, Bloomberg reported this week.

Ukraine plans to spend UAH2.8 trillion on defense in its FY26 budget, or about 27.2 percent of GDP, according to figures published this week. That amounts to over half of the government’s total outlays for the upcoming year.

Press reports this week suggested that Moscow may have delivered nuclear reactor modules to North Korea for use onboard submarines, in return for Pyongyang’s support on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The first U.S. military equipment package under the new Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative is on its way to Ukraine. Kyiv will receive Patriot missiles and ammunition for HIMARS under the new tranche of hardware, which is being paid for by non-U.S. members of NATO.

The Ukrainian government is asking its Western allies to cooperate in the establishment of a joint air defense system for Europe. This call comes as Russia fires 190 missiles at Ukraine since the beginning of September. Europe needs a joint multi-layered air defense system, according to Kyiv. Russia has used Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles in these attacks.

Poland and Ukraine will collaborate on counter-drone training, the Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed this week. The development comes in wake of 19 Russian drones penetrating Polish airspace earlier in September.

The Belgian and Dutch navies have agreed to donate a total of seven mine countermeasures (MCM) vessels to Bulgaria. Belgium will transfer its four Tripartite MCM vessels to Bulgaria, and the Netherlands will transfer three. The transfer will include spare parts and a tactical simulator. According to the Dutch and Belgian navies, the intent behind the free transfer is to provide operational support to the Bulgarian navy, and to Ukraine by extension, given the importance of strong mine countermeasure capabilities in the Black Sea region. Bulgaria will also provide Ukraine with the necessary assistance in the form of training and coaching for crews of the Tripartite class vessels.

Sweden announced this week that it will deliver a new military aid package worth SEK9.2 billion ($989 million) to Ukraine. Included in the assistance package is a group of 18 Archer self-propelled howitzers, adding to eight already delivered in the past.

Battlefield Updates

Russia has lost one of its Orion medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) unmanned air vehicle (UAV) during a mission over Ukraine. The UAV was worth over $5 million. Ukrainian officials said its air defense forces downed the UAV. The Orion MALE UAV can fly for up to 24 hours and offers a payload capacity of 200 kilograms. The UAV is capable of carrying air-to-surface munitions.

The Russian Air Force took delivery of a batch of Su-34 combat aircraft this week, the fourth delivery of the type this year.

Ukraine’s drone operations continue to target Russia’s energy infrastructure. This week, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft issued a warning to the country’s oil producers that they may need to cut output, given damage to its facilities.

Ukrainian company Swarmer is developing new drone software that can be retrofitted to existing military equipment, the company’s CEO told DefenseOne in an interview, turning the hardware into a drone swarm. Ukrainian troops on the frontline are already utilizing the software.

To reduce the risk to human medics, Ukrainian forces are increasingly deploying unmanned ground vehicles to evacuate wounded soldiers from the battlefield. These “robot medics” can navigate difficult terrain under fire to reach casualties in high-risk “red zones” where human access is limited.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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