Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday released a public version of his 2022 Navigation Plan (NAVPLAN) that includes details of the Navy’s desire for a fleet of 373 battle force ships and 150 unmanned vessels to serve alongside them. The document is intended to outline the Navy’s warfighting requirements to Congress, which is different than the long-range shipbuilding plan included in the FY23 budget request that also considers industrial base capacity and funding availability.
The NAVPLAN calls for the following fleet composition by 2045:
- 12 Columbia class ballistic missile submarines
- 12 aircraft carriers
- 66 fast-attack and large payload submarines (this includes the Virginia class and follow-on SSN(X)
- 96 large surface combatants, including DDG 51s and the follow-on DDG(X)
- 56 small surface combatants (i.e. Constellation class frigates)
- 31 large amphibious warships
- 18 Light Amphibious Warships
- 82 combat logistics ships and auxiliary vessels
- 150 unmanned surface and subsurface platforms
Gilday said reaching the desired fleet size will require 3-5 percent budget growth above inflation. If that rate of growth is not possible, he said the Navy will “prioritize modernization over preserving force structure,” resulting in a smaller fleet.
The Navy’s FY23 budget request included a range of future shipbuilding scenarios depending on the availability of resources. With no real budget growth, the Navy would end up with as few as 318 ships by 2045, according to the FY23 shipbuilding strategy. The optimal scenario, resulting in a fleet of 363 ships by 2045, would require an additional $75 billion in real budget growth beyond the current five-year spending. But even that scenario falls short of the new 373-ship warfighting requirement outlined in the NAVPLAN. Compared to the FY23 shipbuilding strategy, the NAVPLAN fleet comprises more large surface combatants, small surface combatants, and attack submarines, but it has fewer amphibious ships and combat logistics and auxiliary vessels.
As editor of International Military Markets, North America, Shaun has cultivated a deep understanding of the vast defense markets in the United States and Canada. Shaun's perspective on defense procurement and budget issues has been cited in a variety of defense periodicals, including Defense News and National Defense Magazine. Further, Shaun played an integral role in the development of Forecast International's U.S. Defense Budget Forecast product, which offers an unprecedented level of insight into the Pentagon's acquisition budget. In addition to providing original analytical content for the U.S. Defense Budget Forecast, Shaun oversees an internal defense budget forecasting process involving Forecast International's team of skilled systems analysts following release of the DoD's annual budget request. Shaun is also in charge of managing Forecast International's Weapons Inventory database.
