This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (August 30)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

A Ukrainian Air Force F-16 in the skies of Ukraine. Image – Ukrainian Air Force

Political Developments

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again addressed the Kursk offensive, stating “the main point of this plan is to force Russia to end the war.”

Ukraine’s recent deep strikes and ground offensive in Russia have had notable military and political effects. Russia has withdrawn aircraft from border airfields and reduced glide bomb attacks. Additionally, Moscow has deployed elite units from its operations in Ukraine to defend its territory, though it has left its troops around Pokrovsk in place, keeping pressure on a key logistics hub in eastern Ukraine. According to Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Armed Forces, Ukraine has taken nearly 600 Russian soldiers captive during the Kursk operation.

Ukraine is drafting a list of potential targets inside Russia that could be hit if the U.S. eases restrictions on cross-border attacks using Western equipment. Russia’s decision to withdraw aircraft from border airfields means Ukraine would be left with fewer priority targets inside Russia, but Kyiv sys there are several high-value targets available. Ukraine maintains that “there should be no restriction on the range of weapons for Ukraine, while terrorists have no such restrictions.” Kyiv is using its incursion into Russian territory to increase pressure on the U.S. administration to lift remaining weapons restrictions.

Meanwhile, the NATO-Ukraine Council convened this week in response to the recent intense Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. NATO allies strongly denounced Russia’s indiscriminate attacks and reiterated their pledge to continue bolstering Ukraine’s defenses.

Given the patchwork of restrictions on the use of foreign-supplied weapons, Ukraine is continuing to develop its own theater ballistic missile.  A successful test of this missile was performed on August 27.  The Ukrainian Defense Industry is working on this project.  No details on this missile system were provided. Ukraine has also developed a domestic missile/drone hybrid called Palianytsia, shown off this week, that has already been used in combat.

During a meeting with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered to help “as a friend” to bring peace to Ukraine. Modi said he supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Though Belarusian troops have been massing on the border with Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday that there “will not be any orders to go outside our country.” After increasing Air Force patrols along its southern border, Belarus reportedly shot down a Russian Shahed drone that strayed into its airspace.

The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on hundreds of companies in Russia, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, for enabling Russia’s war effort. The list included 60 Russian technology and defense firms.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

A $125 million security assistance package from the U.S. was announced the afternoon of August 23, reflecting the 63rd donation of equipment directly from U.S. inventories. The aid package included items such as counter-unmanned aerial systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions; High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) ammunition; 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor weapons; Humvee ambulances; and small arms ammunition.

The U.S. will need to pass another supplemental spending package to continue weapons donations into 2025, but the Pentagon isn’t ready to issue that request to Congress yet. Officials have previously said existing funding should be able to last through the 2024 calendar year.

The European Union’s top foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, said this week that over €1.4 billion from the proceeds of frozen Russian state assets has been disbursed to Ukraine.

“The good news that we are discussing is that we have started to use the windfall profits from the frozen Russian assets. The windfall profits from these frozen assets have already been sent to Ukraine and sent to the member states, and we will provide more military equipment for Ukraine with this money.” – E.U. High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell

The Latvian government will ship 1,400 drones to Ukraine.  This is the largest batch of drones delivered to Ukraine by Latvia since the start of the war.  This shipment completes Latvia’s procurement of more than 2,700 drones for Ukraine.

Robin Radar Systems inked a follow-on agreement with the Dutch Ministry of Defense to supply 51 IRIS mobile drone detection devices to the Ukrainian military. The two sides previously signed an agreement for a separate batch of 51 systems. The new equipment should be delivered by the last few months of 2024. Separately, Lithuania’s Ministry of Defense noted this week that it had delivered new anti-drone systems to Ukraine.

Ammunition Plants located in Pennsylvania have increased production of artillery shells for Ukraine by 50 percent to meet increased demand. The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, along with two other ammunition facilities in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, have increased production from 24,000 rounds per month to 36,000 rounds per month. Three new production lines are also being established to further increase production.

Battlefield Updates

Ukraine has used its newly in-service F-16 fighters to down incoming Russian missiles and drones, such as those in sent a massive barrage into Ukraine during this week.  Ukrainian officials said its F-16s were used to intercept Russian missiles, but did not provide details on the engagement. The jets come equipped with new electronic warfare systems installed after their donation to Ukraine was announced.

The Ukrainian military confirmed that an F-16 fighter jet was lost during a Russian aerial attack. The plane was destroyed while defending against a large-scale assault, resulting in the death of the pilot.

The Ukrainian government has announced the first successful use in combat of a new locally developed weapon.  The Palianytsia drone missile hit its first target on August 24.  Zelensky called the Palianytsia a new class of weapon.

A Crotale short-range air defense system operated by the Ukrainian military has been lost in combat.  The surface-to-air missile (SAM) system was hit by an FPV drone.  The Crotale SAM system is worth $8.9 million.

A Russian-operated Shahed attack drone has been shot down by a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter.  The helicopter used its nose-mounted 7.62 mm machine gun against the attack drone.  A different video shows a Ukrainian Mi-24P attack helicopter intercepting Russian drones.

The Russian military launched another massive aerial attack on Ukraine on August 26, sending missiles and drones to hit a range of targets across the country.  The Russian barrage included more than 100 missiles and around 100 attack drones, including as many as 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 28 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Russia continued to attack targets inside Ukraine later in the week, as well.  Ukrainian officials said on August 29 that air defense forces shot down two out of five missiles and 60 out of 74 drones launched overnight.  These weapons targeted nine regions across Ukraine.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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