This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (January 31)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Political Developments

The European Union is looking to fast-track Ukraine’s membership bid into the bloc, officials said this week. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos told media in Brussels that several negotiating tracks could be opened with Kyiv already by the summer. Kos noted that advancing each step will require sign-off from the E.U.’s members.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call with E.U. High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas this week to discuss the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, among other issues. In a statement, the State Department noted that Rubio also pushed for the E.U. to raise its defense spending.

Polish President Andrzej Duda told the BBC in an interview this week that Russian gas flows to Europe should not be restored, even in the event of a peace agreement in Ukraine. Russia terminated gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 in 2022. “I can only hope that European leaders will learn lessons from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and that they will push through a decision to never restore the pumping of gas through this pipeline,” Duda said.

Ukraine has dismissed the head of its Defense Procurement Agency, Maryna Bezrukova, for “failure to meet delivery plans and other violations.”

Pyongyang is providing different armaments to Russia including anti-armor missiles.  North Korean troops are also active on the frontline in Ukraine.  North Korea has delivered the Bulsae-4 anti-tank guided weapon (ATGW) system to Russia.

 

Military Assistance to Ukraine

A temporary freeze on U.S. foreign assistance announced by Secretary of State hasn’t impacted Ukraine. Most military aid for Ukraine goes through the Pentagon, but the State Department oversees the foreign military financing and international military education and training program. However, the Pentagon has exhausted the funding allocated by Congress for weapons donations, and President Trump has expressed skepticism about continuing military aid.

Ukraine has recently taken delivery of 90 Patriot air-defense missiles from Israel under an arrangement facilitated by the U.S., Axios reported on Tuesday. The missiles had entered storage after being retired from the Israeli military in April last year. Washington has pushed Israel to transfer them to Ukraine to help replenish Ukrainian air-defense stockpiles.

The Italian Parliament voted on Tuesday to extend military support to Ukraine through December 31, 2025. The measure easily passed the Italian Senate, but split the Chamber of Deputies. Rome has provided 10 military aid packages to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022, and officials said earlier in January that another is in the works.

Lithuania’s Ministry of Defense delivered a new batch of manportable air-defense missiles to Ukraine, the ministry announced on Thursday.

Croatia, meanwhile, announced its 12th tranche of military assistance to Ukraine this week. In a statement, Ukrainian Prime MInister Denys Shmyhal said, “We are grateful for the preparation of this package, which is extremely important on the battlefield.”

The U.S. is moving MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) currently in Israel to Poland.  Eventually, the missiles will be transferred to Ukraine.  Israel recently decommissioned its Patriot air defense systems.

Battlefield Updates

The Russian government announced that its forces have captured the Ukrainian town of Velyka Novosilka. Russian troops have been pushing an offensive in the eastern Donetsk region ahead of the war’s three-year anniversary in February.

A Ukrainian apartment building was struck by a Russian Shahed drone in nighttime attack in northeastern Ukraine, killing at least six people and wounding nine others.

Ukraine has developed an approach to defeat Russian first-person view (FPV) drones that use fiber optic cables instead of relying on wireless connections to the pilot. The fiber optic connections make the Russian drones impervious to jamming or other electronic warfare methods. To combat this emerging threat, Ukrainian troops utilizes radars to identify the FPV drones, then they launch their own interceptor drones to defeat the threat.

Russia has fired more missiles and drones into Ukraine.  Some 92 Shahed attack drones and four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles struck targets across Ukrainian territory on the night of January 23.  Of these weapons, 57 drones have been shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces.

A video put online shows a Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tank being hit 12 times by first-person-view (FPV) drones.  The vehicle was set on fire, but the crew was able to successfully evacuate.

Russia has performed another drone attack on Ukraine.  Moscow fired 104 Shahed-type drones targeting 10 regions.  Ukrainian air defense forces said it shot down 57 of these drones.  The attack took place on the night of January 27.

A Russian cruise missile was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense forces protecting Odesa.  This attack took place on the morning of January 28.  Russia launched an Iskander-K cruise missile.

The ADM-160B Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD), developed by Raytheon in the United States, is operational with the Ukrainian military.  The ADM-160B MALD entered service with the U.S. Air Force in 2009.  Ukraine has deployed the MALD alongside advanced weaponry, such as the Storm Shadow and ATACMS, during attacks on heavily defended targets.

Russia has conducted another attack on Ukraine using drones.  During the night of January 29, Russian forces fired 57 Shahed-type drones and an Iskander-M ballistic missile at targets inside Ukraine.

 

 

 

 

 

+ posts

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

View all posts by Forecast International →