This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (October 24)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

A U.S. army missile defense system sits in a clearing in Croatia
A U.S. Army Patriot missile defense system.

Political Developments

The proposed Trump-Putin summit in Budapest has been frozen, White House officials confirmed this week. U.S. President Donald Trump had suggested he could meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital following a phone call with Putin last week. But those plans were scrapped days later, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Monday phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

The Treasury Department slapped sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Wednesday, stating the step was taken “as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.” The news prompted a rout in Russian stocks.

Large state-owned oil companies in China suspended imports of Russian seaborne oil following the U.S. sanctions, Reuters reported on Thursday.

The U.S. reportedly took other steps to increase pressure on Moscow this week, with the Wall Street Journal reporting on Wednesday that the Trump administration has lifted restrictions on Kyiv’s usage of Western-supplied missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia. That report came one day after Ukraine performed a Storm Shadow strike in Russia’s Bryansk. According to the WSJ, “The unannounced U.S. move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the top U.S. general in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich.”

Trump, however, pushed back on the report on his Truth Social page, stating, “The U.S. has nothing to do with those missiles, wherever they may come from, or what Ukraine does with them.”

Trump also voiced doubts this week about whether Ukraine would win the war. “I don’t think they will, but they could still win it,” he said at the White House on Monday.

EU leaders have pledged to support Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years but postponed a decision on using €140 billion in frozen Russian assets, citing legal and political complexities, with a follow-up summit scheduled for December. The bloc also reinforced sanctions targeting Russian oil and energy exports, aiming to cut Moscow’s war-funding resources, while Ukrainian President Zelensky seeks further military support, including long-range missiles from the US and Europe.

Moscow launched a series of drills for its strategic nuclear forces, including practice missile launches.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

President Zelensky met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson this week to discuss strengthening Ukraine’s air-defenses. The two leaders inked a letter of intent that could eventually see Kyiv procure between 100-150 JAS-39 Gripen fighter jets. Kristersson later stated that the jets may be paid for in part using frozen Russian financial assets, along with funds contributed by Ukraine’s partners. He added that deliveries of new-build Gripens could get underway within three years of a contract.

Ukraine is reportedly preparing to order Patriot air defense systems, according to media reports in Kyiv. The government is planning to acquire 25 Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, though the exact timing of the order has not been announced.

Italy will participate in the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program, Bloomberg reported this week, citing sources familiar with Rome’s decision. Through PURL, established over the summer after the U.S. curtailed military aid, European countries are purchasing American weapons for delivery to Ukraine. 

In an announcement on Tuesday, the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Prague will build an Earth observation satellite for Ukraine, which can be used for intelligence-gathering and to assist reconstruction efforts.

Ukraine and Bell Textron signed a letter of intent on October 20 to explore areas of cooperation, including a possible purchase of AH-1Z and UH-1Y helicopters.

The U.K. is preparing to begin licensed production of thousands of Ukrainian-designed interceptor drones. The Octopus interceptor is expected to contribute to Europe’s “drone wall,” defending against weapons like Shahed one-way attack drones. Interceptors produced in the U.K. can also be supplied to Ukraine by the thousands.

Battlefield Updates

On October 21, Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Bryansk Chemical Plant using Storm Shadow missiles. The Storm Shadow, manufactured by MBDA, was supplied to Ukraine by the United Kingdom. In a recent meeting, Ukraine also requested Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States.

Russia is using jet-powered glide bombs against Ukraine. These weapons outfit a small turbojet engine on a glide bomb, significantly increasing its range.

Ukraine unveiled an upgraded unmanned naval drone for operations in the Black sea. The “Sea Baby” has an increased range of 1,500 kilometers, up from 1,000 kilometers, and it can carry a payload of up to 2,000 kilograms.

Russia’s Ryazan oil refinery, the fourth-largest in the country, reportedly ceased processing following a Ukrainian drone attack. Mosco wants reservists to help defend the country’s oil infrastructure.

Russia claimed its forces took control of three villages in eastern Ukraine: Bolohivka in the Kharkiv region, Promin in the Donetsk region, and Zlagoda in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

A Russian drone strike killed two Ukrainian journalists in Kramatorsk. President Zelensky condemned the attack.

A Russian attack on Tuesday left four dead and thousands without power in the Chernihiv region. Kyiv also suffered multiple overnight drone strikes, resulting in multiple casualties and damage across the city.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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