This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (November 1)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

a fighter jet taxis on a runway Source: Ukrainian Air Force
An Su-24M tactical bomber carrying Storm Shadow missiles

Political Developments

The Pentagon said North Korea has sent around 10,000 troops to Russia for training, suggesting they could be used to fight against Ukraine in the coming weeks. Earlier estimates suggested there were 3,000 North Korean troops training in Russia. The Pentagon said it would not place new limits on the use of donated weapons if North Korean troops enter the fight.

South Korea, meanwhile, has echoed concerns voiced by Ukraine’s military intelligence chief that Moscow could pay Pyongyang back for the deployment by transferring missile technology. “There is a high possibility that North Korea, in exchange for their troops’ deployment, would ask for cutting-edge technology,” South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said this week at a press conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

Ukraine’s security service said it arrested a Russian spy impersonating a United Nations volunteer.

The U.S. sanctioned two Swiss lawyers over suspicion of aiding Russia in moving money through shell companies, stating that the two “are major handlers of Russian assets and are important business and cash flow facilitators for Russian in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.”

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The upcoming U.S. election could have a significant impact on military aid for Ukraine. Donald Trump has threatened to cut off support for Ukraine, so a Trump victory could result in slump weapons donations. In the event of a victory by Kamala Harris, her administration could face congressional resistance for continuing major aid to Ukraine.

A report in the New York Times this week revealed that Kyiv has requested to acquire the Tomahawk cruise missile system, citing an anonymous senior U.S. official familiar with the talks as well as the White House’s internal deliberations. Ukraine has sought the missile to enable long-range strikes, but according to the report, the Biden administration has been skeptical that delivering the Tomahawk would change the battlefield dynamics.

The report’s publication, however, has prompted a spat between Kyiv and Washington, as Ukrainian President Zelenskyy denounced the leak in an interview, effectively confirming its veracity.

“And this was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House. How should we understand these messages? So, it means between partners there’s nothing confidential?” – President Zelenskyy. 

Poland has said it will not donate any newly purchased military hardware to Ukraine. Poland has been acquiring new weapons from South Korea, including tanks, self-propelled howitzers, missile launchers, and combat aircraft. However, South Korea has raised the possibility of providing military assistance to Ukraine. President Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said this week that Kyiv will send a request to Seoul for armaments. 

Norway will provide $118 million to support Ukraine’s operation of F-16 fighter jets, Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said this week after a visit to Odesa for discussions with his Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umerov. He added that Norway will begin delivering some of its F-16s to the Ukrainian Air Force before the end of the year.

Rheinmetall handed over 20 more Marder IFVs to the Ukrainian Army, the company said on October 25. The delivery took place during the third quarter of 2024. Separately, Berlin and London announced this week that they will deliver missiles to arm Ukraine’s Sea King helicopters. The two sides declined to identify what armaments will be transferred. And a new German-Croatian arms deal, covering the sale of Leopard tanks to the Croatian Army, will free up the Croatian government to deliver 30 used tanks and 30 IFVs to Ukraine.

The Lithuanian company RSI Europe sent its first batch of “Shpak” FPV quadcopter drones to the Ukrainian military this week, following the signing of a $4 million contract in August. The drones can carry up to 5 kg of explosives, enabling their usage as one-way strike weapons.

Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are quickly draining the U.S. inventory of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).  Since the start of the fighting in Ukraine and in the Middle East, demand around the world for air defense missiles has surged.

Norway has promised to help Romania acquire a Patriot air defense missile system.  Recently, Romania delivered a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.  Norway plans to provide financial assistance to Roman’s Patriot program in the amount of NOK1.4 billion (around EUR118 million).

 

Battlefield Updates

Kyiv and Moscow are in negotiations that could see the two halt airstrikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. The two countries have in recent weeks reduced the number of attacks on energy plants as part of the talks, according to the report.

But other targets are still on the table. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that Rheinmetall’s new plant in Ukraine is considered a legitimate target for the Russian military.

On Capitol Hill, a bipartisan group of lawmakers this week urged the Biden administration to approve a Polish proposal that would see Polish air-defenses shoot-down Russian missiles over Ukrainian airspace. Washington has been leery of approving the step over concern that it could further entangle NATO in a direct confrontation with Moscow.

In an acknowledgement of the personnel problems facing the Ukrainian military, the government will call up another 160,000 people for duty in the Armed Forces. The new recruits will be called up over the coming three months, according to reports. But Russian hackers are suspected of targeting Ukraine’s military recruitment efforts, hampering Kyiv’s mobilization goals.

Russian soldiers held off a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory, according to a local official. A Russian governor in the Bryansk region said an “armed group” had attempted to cross the border.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops made several advances this week, capturing the village of Izmailivka located southeast of Pokrovsk. Russian troops also took the town of Selydove, according to reports on Thursday.

Russia has used the Kh-38 strike missile in an attack on the Kharkiv region.  The missile destroyed an unspecified facility in the village of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.  The Kh-38 is an air-launched missile that is a successor to the Kh-25 and Kh-29.

The Ukrainian Army has infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in service armed with anti-armor missiles.  Soldiers from Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Mahura fired a TOW anti-armor missile from a Bradley IFV during combat.

The Ukrainian military has used the Switchblade 600 loitering munition to attack a Russian-operated Tor-M2 air defense missile system.  The system was destroyed in the Donetsk region.

 

 

 

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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