Leaders of NATO space forces agree with the conclusion U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Salzman reached in his March “Space Warfighting” document: military planners can no longer take the space domain for granted. The post-Cold War era of peaceful cooperation is fading, replaced by a more competitive and aggressive new era.
This shift began on January 11, 2007, when China launched a direct-ascent anti-satellite weapon (ASAT), successfully destroying a Chinese satellite. Since then, both China and Russia have aggressively pursued the weaponization of space.
From a U.S. and NATO perspective, maintaining free access to and the ability to operate in space is vital for national security. From a military standpoint, space is essential for real-time targeting, coordination, and force projection across all domains. Western allies share concerns that the international stakes in pursuing space superiority are high. Both China and Russia are developing a range of capabilities, including satellites and orbiters, kinetic and non-kinetic anti-satellite missiles, electronic warfare, laser dazzling, and cyber-attacks.
As a result, governments are changing their strategic views on space and aligning their defense strategies, research and development, and funding accordingly.
Government investment in space defense and security continues to grow, with an estimated $73.1 billion allocated for 2024. While the U.S. provided the largest share at $53.1 billion, China – not known for budget transparency – is estimated to have allocated $9.3 billion. Russia spent an estimated $2.3 billion, with France close behind at $2.1 billion.
From a Western perspective, the technological advantage the U.S. and its allies held after the Cold War is now at risk. Key figures on Capitol Hill are arguing that funding and support for NASA’s operations should be ring-fenced and bolstered. They warn that failure to do so risks allowing China to claim superiority in space, empowering them to reshape the global order. Going forward, we should expect more funding, increased investment in developing and producing space-based offensive and defensive capabilities, and more operational-level planning for conflict scenarios in low Earth orbit.
Dan Darling is Forecast International’s director of military and defense markets. In this role, Dan oversees a team of analysts tasked with covering everything from budgeting to weapons systems to defense electronics and military aerospace. Additionally, for over 17 years Dan has, at various times, authored the International Military Markets reports for Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.
Dan's work has been cited in Defense News, Real Clear Defense, Asian Military Review, Al Jazeera, and Financial Express, among others, and he has also contributed commentary to The Diplomat, The National Interest and World Politics Review. He has been quoted in Arabian Business, the Financial Times, Flight International, The New York Times, Bloomberg and National Defense Magazine.
In addition, Dan has made guest appearances on the online radio show Midrats and on The Media Line, as well as The Red Line Podcast, plus media appearances on France 24 and World Is One News (WION).
