A Forecast International blog about the arms trade, geopolitics, defense and security, and military spending.
AI as Organizational Technology In his 2025 book, AI, Automation, and War, Anthony King implores the reader to understand artificial intelligence (AI) as a phenomenon most closely related to organizational …
AI in Iran: It’s Not (Just) About Capabilities Read More
Defense technology often attracts people who are inclined to pay attention to the various stages of a normal technology’s lifecycle: its technical underpinnings and development; its relationship with existing techniques; …
Defense Tech Enters a New Era: The Case of Anthropic and the DoD Read More
Echoes of Project Maven This past January, Reuters reported that American Large Language Model (LLM) developer Anthropic had reached a standstill in its dealings with the U.S. Department of Defense …
Anthropic and the U.S. DoD: Unusual Dynamics in an Unusual Time Read More
What Is the New Strategy? On January 9th, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released its Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Strategy. The Strategy promotes a familiar outcome: for the U.S. military …
The U.S. DoD’s AI Acceleration Strategy Read More
In its Fiscal Year 2026 budget proposal, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) requested roughly $1.9 billion to fund new projects that were previously part of its Network-Centric Warfare …
DARPA’s Advanced Technology Development and Commercialization Read More
It is not uncommon today to find warnings about the looming impacts of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) industry downturn. A recent feature in Project Syndicate, for example, brought together scholars …
Is Dual-Use Tech Entering a High(er) Risk Period? Outlook for the Year Ahead Read More
If Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being developed in a financial bubble, and if this bubble bursts, several defense-related trends may be set into motion. First, defense contractors selling AI products …
The AI Bubble in Defense: What to Expect in a Burst Read More
Introduction The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) held its annual meeting this week in Washington, D.C. Amid an upswing in emerging defense technology – and artificial intelligence …
AUSA 2025 and AI Piloting: An Old Idea with New Technology Read More
(This is the second of a two-part series on AI in defense. You can find the first part here.) Introduction A white paper recently published by the Computing Community Consortium …
Where Is Artificial Intelligence in Defense Heading? Read More
President Trump’s Golden Dome initiative has certainly created buzz within the Space industry. There are a lot of questions still unanswered, namely what the architecture of the system will be. …
Is AI Ready for Golden Dome’s Three-Minute War? Read More