Sanctions Set to Hit Russian Commercial Aerospace Sector

The reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has broadened into the civil aerospace sector:

March 2 (Reuters) – Planemakers Boeing and Airbus have halted supply of parts and support to Russian airlines as the effects of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ripple across the global aviation industry.

 

The United States said late on Tuesday that it would follow the European Union and Canada in banning Russian flights from its airspace in a move that is likely to trigger Russian retaliation. 

 

Boeing said it had “suspended major operations” in Russia, where it also has research and engineering centres.

 

Airbus, meanwhile, said it is halting supply of parts and services to Russian airlines but is analysing whether its Moscow engineering centre could continue providing services to local customers. — Reuters

The conflict has already altered my forecasts for the Antonov An-148 and Irkut Superjet regional jet programs.  Those updated forecasts are already visible to our Platinum clients.

The downstream effect of the new sanctions and airspace closures on the wider civil aerospace sector isn’t clear yet.  The impact of air freight disruptions on the supply chains of manufacturers is one worry, particularly at Airbus. And spikes in the price of oil could increase the cost of airline travel and hurt the post-pandemic recovery the industry has enjoyed recently.

At this point, I don’t think the conflict will widely affect production rates in the civil sector.  The Russian market accounts for a relatively small proportion of airliner demand each year, and demand for long-range business jets is robust enough to adapt to the loss of business from Russian customers.  However, war and conflict can easily blow up an otherwise solid forecast.  It’s something I’m keeping an eye on at the moment.

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