A Forecast International blog about the arms trade, geopolitics, defense and security, and military spending.
The FY26 defense appropriations bill signed into law earlier this month included a significant injection of new resources from Congress to support a mix of core capabilities and advanced technology …
Analyzing the Final FY26 Defense Appropriations Bill Read More
Chinese Project 093B (Shang III) Submarines – Source: Chinese Government Media Last week, the U.K.’s International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank issued a landmark report concluding that between …
Production and Power: China Outpaces U.S. in Nuclear Submarine Construction Read More
Echoes of Project Maven This past January, Reuters reported that American Large Language Model (LLM) developer Anthropic had reached a standstill in its dealings with the U.S. Department of Defense …
Anthropic and the U.S. DoD: Unusual Dynamics in an Unusual Time Read More
Illustration of the PAC-3 MSE interceptor. Source: Lockheed Martin The U.S. is significantly expanding production of missile systems, including PAC-3 MSE, Tomahawk, Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), SM-3, and SM-6, …
Accelerating U.S. Missile Development and Naval Posture in the Indo-Pacific Read More
Boeing and Lockheed Martin’s combined fourth-quarter reports indicate a banner year for fighter aircraft deliveries, but a deeper look reveals important context and program-specific headwinds from 2025. Overall, the only …
American Fighter Primes in Review: A Breakdown of Boeing and Lockheed Martin’s 2025 Jet Deliveries Read More
Source: Ukraine MoD/21st Mechanized Brigade On February 3rd, the Pentagon announced the 25 vendors invited to participate in Phase I of the Drone Dominance Program (DDP). By injecting $1.1 billion …
Could the Army’s “Gauntlet” for Cheap Combat Drones Rewrite the Defense Acquisition Playbook? Read More
The Dassault Rafale program is entering a period of sustained high-rate production, with export customers increasingly interested in acquiring the aircraft despite strong competition provided by the Lockheed Martin F-35, …
Rafale Rising: Production Ramp-Up and the Road to the F5 Standard Read More
The Pentagon has released a new National Defense Strategy (NDS) that represents a shift in Washington’s strategic posture, placing renewed emphasis on homeland defense, bolstering U.S. influence in the Western …
National Defense Strategy Prioritizes the Western Hemisphere, Shifts Burden-Sharing to Allies Read More
What Is the New Strategy? On January 9th, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released its Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Strategy. The Strategy promotes a familiar outcome: for the U.S. military …
The U.S. DoD’s AI Acceleration Strategy Read More
PLA Rocket Force units participating in a parade for the PRC’s 70th anniversary in Beijing. Source – People’s Republic of China As China enters its 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030), Beijing …
Analysis of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and Its Expected Impact on China’s Military Modernization Read More