A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Political Developments
Pro-Russian politicians in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria have issued appeals for Moscow to provide ‘protection’ for the region, according to reports. Transnistria is not recognized as a country internationally, but plays host to a small Russian military contingent.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy traveled to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss potential options for developing a peace plan to end the war. The president has proposed his own peace formula that would require Russia to leave Ukrainian territory and be held accountable for war crimes, to which Moscow objects. Zelenskyy’s meeting with Saudi’s crown prince also included a discussion on recovering prisoners of war.
Military Assistance to Ukraine
European leaders are putting pressure on the U.S. Congress to approve a military aid package for Ukraine that remains stalled due to domestic border security measures that have become politically linked to the foreign security assistance. Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radosław Sikorski specifically called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to let a the Ukraine aid bill more forward. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also said that more people will die fighting without the potential $60 billion U.S. aid package.
In the meantime, the Biden administration is looking at using the last remaining funds — around $4 billion — authorized in the presidential drawdown authority (PDA) for Ukraine. The Pentagon has been waiting for the Congressional bill, which would reimburse the Defense Department for equipment delivered via PDA to Ukraine, but gridlock in the Congress has prevented the passage of the bill.
The Czech government’s plan for the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine is receiving support from other European states. The $1.5 billion initiative would see the states purchase ammunition on Ukraine’s behalf, even sourcing from outside of Europe.
The New York Times published a report on February 25 detailing the extent of cooperation between the CIA and Ukraine, including around a dozen ‘spy bases’ constructed beginning in 2016, two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan said this week that his country will deliver a missile early warning system to Ukraine, comparing Russia’s invasion of that country to the Hamas October 7 attacks on Israel.
German company Rheinmetall will provide another 20 Caracal vehicles under an agreement with Ukraine announced this week. The deal is being financed by the German government as aid to Kyiv.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz explained his country’s reluctance to provide Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, stating, “What is being done in the way of target control and accompanying target control on the part of the British and the French can’t be done in Germany. Everyone who has dealt with this system knows that.” The U.K. and France have provided the Storm Shadow and Scalp, respectively, to Ukraine.
His comments suggested that, for Ukraine to properly operate Taurus, German troops might need to be on the ground in Ukraine, a step that Berlin is unwilling to take over the potential to escalate the conflict. British MP Tobias Ellwood criticized Scholz’s statement as ‘a flagrant abuse of intelligence‘ for providing details on the nature of the British support for Ukraine.
Battlefield Updates
Approximately 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action since Russia launched its invasion, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The number of wounded or missing soldiers was not disclosed. It’s unclear how many Russian soldiers have been killed in the war. Data from Moscow indicates just over 6,000 killed, but U.S. and U.K. officials believe the actual figure is much higher. A U.S. intelligence report from December 2023 estimated 315,000 wounded or killed in Ukraine. Independent Russian news outlet Mediazona reported that 75,000 Russians men have been killed over the past two years.
Russia has used its new Zircon missile in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin confirmed in an address to the Federal Assembly on Thursday. Ukraine said it shot one down earlier this month.
Russia is expected to hold an artillery advantage through 2024 due to ammunition shortfalls in Ukraine. Russia could potentially obtain four million rounds of artillery ammunition. About half those shells would come from North Korea, but reports suggest many of the shells from North Korea are faulty. The U.S. and Europe have been slower to ramp up artillery production.
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik told media on Monday that Pyongyang has already delivered 6,700 containers of ammunition to Russia since July. He estimated that those containers could have held a total of several million artillery shells, including 122mm and 152mm rounds.
U.S. technologies are showing up in Russian weapons recovered on the battlefield, including drones, vehicles, bombs, and munitions, experts told U.S. lawmakers during a Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs subcommittee hearing. Despite sanctions, Russia has still been able to secure the components that are used in advanced weapons, raising questions about the effectiveness of U.S. export controls.
Nikkei reported over the weekend that Russian armored vehicle conglomerate Uralvagonzavod is using third parties to acquire high-tech precision instruments from Taiwan and Japan, for use in the T-72 and T-90 main battle tanks. The report details how the Russian state company has worked to thwart the U.S.-led sanctions regime on the Russian defense industry.
Putin signed two decrees on Monday that will restructure some of Russia’s military districts. The decrees undo the 2010 creation of the Western Military District, which has now been separated back into the Leningrad Military District and Moscow Military District. The Kremlin has highlighted Finnish accession to NATO as a key driver of the re-establishment of the LMD. The Northern Fleet — which operates some of Russia’s newest warships including Zircon-carrier Admiral Gorshkov — no longer will be an independent district and is now included in the LMD, as well.
Ukrainian air defenders intercepted another wave of attack drones launched by Russia. Moscow has conducted almost daily attacks with expendable drones, many provided by Iran. Kyiv said Russia fired 13 Shahed-class attack drones on February 27.
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