This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (March 29)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

flames erupt from the barrel of a howitzer being fired in a field
Ukrainian 55th “Zaporozhian Sich” Artillery Brigade firing French CAESARs

Political Developments

The foreign ambassadors from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as London’s ambassador to the United States, urged the U.S. to move forward with providing additional security assistance to Ukraine. The officials warned of Russia’s plan to expand its Army through a new draft and continue its fight in Ukraine.

A Russian missile fired at Ukraine briefly crossed into Polish airspace, prompting a spat between Moscow and Warsaw. Russia’s ambassador to Poland ignored a summons to explain the situation to Poland’s foreign ministry.

Speaking on Polish radio about the incident, Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Shejna said that NATO may consider shooting down missiles that stray close to the Alliance’s airspace.

“NATO is analyzing various concepts, including that such missiles should be shot down when they are very close to the NATO border – but this would have to be done with the consent of the Ukrainian side and with due regard for international consequences.” Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Shejna said.

Ukraine has reduced the number of people it plans to mobilize to bolster the size of the Army. Kyiv originally anticipated mobilizing up to 500,000 Ukrainians into the military, but newly appointed commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that number had been “significantly reduced.” Syrskyi did not provide a specific figure.

Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the possibility of striking Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets housed at Western air bases. He said he has no plans to launch attacks against NATO itself, but F-16s being used to conduct operations against Russian forces would be considered a “legitimate target” for Russia. Ukraine is still awaiting delivery of F-16s.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

France plans to deliver 78 Caesar howitzers to Ukraine, along with additional artillery ammunition. A finance agreement was reached among France, Denmark, and Ukraine for the weapons. France plans to deliver 80,000 artillery shells to Ukraine in 2024. The country has delivered around 30,000 shells since the war began.

Prague has delivered its last two Mi-35s to Ukraine, which were delivered via Poland to Ukraine’s MoD. The helicopters were officially decommissioned from the Czech military in October.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, on a trip to Latvia, said that Warsaw would double its commitment in the Czech-led effort to source artillery shells for the Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainian government is again asking its Western allies to provide additional air defense systems.  Kyiv is looking to enhance its defenses after an escalation in Russian ballistic missile attacks.

In an interview with POLITICO, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged further delivery of air-defense weapons to help guard his country’s skies. “If we had enough air defense systems, namely Patriots, we would be able to protect not only the lives of our people, but also our economy from destruction,” Kuleba told the media outlet.

Asked about the possibility of Sweden supplying Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said, “The deliberations are ongoing, and they take place within the fighter jet coalition.”

Battlefield Updates

Villages on both sides of the border between Ukraine and Russia have seen an upswing in attacks. Vladimir Putin recently raised the idea of a buffer zone along the border, and smaller villages in Ukraine have recently seen an increased pace of Russian attacks. At the same time, Ukrainian forces have been working to bring the fight to Russia with increased border incursions.

The U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine publishing a new report on March 26, covering the previous three months of the conflict. The report identified “credible allegations of the execution of at least 32 Ukrainian POWs” over this period, noting that this was “significantly more than in any previous period.”

Ukraine carried out several strikes on Russian Black Sea Fleet ships over the past week. On March 24, Ukraine said it destroyed the Ropucha class landing ships Yamal and Azov. Several days later, Ukraine used the R-360 Neptune missile to hit Konstantin Olshansky, an ex-Ukrainian ship of the same class that was captured by Russian forces in 2014.

Russia has performed another missile strike on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.  Ukrainian air defense forces claim the interception of 29 cruise and two ballistic missiles during the early morning attack.

Ukraine has used three Storm Shadow missiles in an attack on the Russian Navy’s main communications center in Sevastopol, a port on the Crimea Peninsula.  This attack took place on March 23.

The Ukrainian air defense system has successfully downed more than 2,000 Russian cruise and ballistic missiles since the start of the war.  Ukrainian officials say it still needs more air defense systems to counter the aerial threat.

Russia launched airstrikes against Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine for the first time since 2022. The strikes hit several residential buildings and damaged a medical facility. Local officials report that at least one civilian was killed and another 16 people were wounded.

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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