This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (December 6)

A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

A multiple launch rocket system (MLRS/HIMARS). Photo Source: U.S. Army.

Political Developments

The White House plans to strengthen Ukraine’s war efforts with major military aid and new sanctions on Russia, according to a security briefing. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan pledged to deliver artillery, rockets, and armored vehicles by mid-January during a meeting with Ukrainian official Andrii Yermak.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow’s use of a hypersonic missile in Ukraine aimed to show the West it would use “any means” to avoid defeat. In an interview with U.S. journalist Tucker Carlson, Lavrov accused the West of fighting to maintain global hegemony.

Donald Trump’s advisers are proposing plans to end the Ukraine war by ceding territory to Russia and ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine, according to Reuters. They suggest pressuring both sides into talks by withholding military aid to Kyiv or increasing it if Russia refuses to negotiate.

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the 2025 budget on Monday. Text of the document published over the weekend showed that it devotes RUB13.5 trillion ($134.3 billion) to defense, about one third of total government expenditure.

On a visit to Kyiv after taking office as the E.U. High Representative for Foreign Affairs, former Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas highlighted the bloc’s support for Ukraine’s defense industry, as well as Western sanctions on Russia.

“We see their economy in a very dire state,” — E.U. High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas said of the Russian economy.

Putin said on Friday that Russia will deploy its Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile to CSTO ally Belarus in the latter half of next year, responding to a request from Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko. Russia used the Oreshnik missile to strike the Ukrainian city Dnipro on November 21.

Military Assistance to Ukraine

The German government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz is continuing with its policy of refusing to deliver long-range strike missiles to Ukraine.  Kyiv has repeatedly asked Germany for the TAURUS missile.

The Ukrainian government has announced a successful effort to increase production at its defense equipment factories.  Kyiv said is defense companies have accelerated production of missiles and drones to meet the demands of its armed forces.

Ukraine has commenced serial production of its Palianytsia lightweight missile-drone hybrid.  Officials made this announced on December 4.  The Palianytsia combines existing technologies to provide the Ukrainian military with a deep strike weapon. On Friday, President Zelensky attended a hand-over ceremony for the first batch of “Peklo” missile-drones, which carry a range of 700 kilometers.

Ukraine has conducted the first test of its new Protector unmanned ground vehicle (UGV).  Ukrainian Armor developed this UGV.  The Protector UGV is designed to perform different missions ranging from logistics to reconnaissance to casualty evacuation. The Ukrainian government plans to order tens of thousands of UGVs, deputy prime minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters.

Battlefield Updates

As 2024 ends and winter sets in, Russian forces continue to push back Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s western Kursk region. However, the toll has been devastating, with Britain’s defense ministry reporting 45,680 Russian casualties in November alone—the highest since the invasion began in February 2022.

Russia is once again leveraging winter as a weapon in its war against Ukraine. Ahead of NATO talks in Brussels, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte emphasized the need to protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and bolster its air defenses against Russian attacks.

Ukraine continues to grapple with personnel shortages, with recent reports indicating that over 100,000 soldiers have deserted the frontlines.

A report in The Economist published this week examined the effectiveness of Ukrainian AI-powered drones in overcoming jamming from electronic warfare systems, noting, “Data from the battlefield suggest that the hit rate for these AI-guided drones is currently above 80%.”

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About Forecast International

For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com

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